# What Is Wall Street Up Too…
**Date:** 2026-06-03  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0oskr71tDeo)

## Main Thesis
Wall Street is showing signs of a broadening market rally beyond mega-cap tech, reminiscent of previous bull market cycles, but also exhibiting some underlying weaknesses like declining advances versus declines, which could signal a potential stagnation or shift in market dynamics.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. SPX (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH
**Pattern:** uptrend, potential weakening in advances vs. declines
**Key Levels:** 7499.90 support, 1804.91 support
**Historical Comparison:** similar to previous market cycles like the dot-com era or 2021 hyperscalers

The SPX chart shows a strong uptrend. Atkinson highlights that while the market is going up, the level of advances versus declines over the last five days is showing more decliners, which is unusual for a strong rally and has only happened a handful of times in recent years. This could indicate a concentrated market rally rather than a broad one, similar to 2021 where mega-caps led the charge.

### 2. MRVL (4h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** strong upward movement, gap up
**Key Levels:** 280.58 support, 319.00 resistance

Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) experienced a significant 35% jump, driven by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's comment that it could be the next $1 trillion business. This led to a massive buying frenzy and a huge gap up, illustrating how quickly sentiment can move markets in 2026.

### 3. BTC/USDT (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend, potential flag pattern
**Key Levels:** 66,776.33 support, 65,806.45 previous resistance

Bitcoin is showing a significant downturn, with a 10% drop after Michael Saylor sold 32 BTC. This follows a massive dark pool transaction. The price has broken through a major trendline and is heading towards the 'most traded zone' around 66,229.89. Atkinson notes that if support isn't found, it could signal a 'Bitcoin winter' or the continuation of a cycle's end.

### 4. Types of Headaches (Meme) (N/A)

**Bias:** HUMOROUS

A meme showing different types of headaches, with 'Crypto trading' depicted as the most severe, highlighting the stress and volatility associated with it.

### 5. Market Heatmap (N/A)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** mixed market, some tech sectors green, others red

A heatmap of various market sectors, showing a mixed bag of performance. Technology, communication services, and consumer cyclical sectors have both green (advancing) and red (declining) stocks. NVDA is slightly down, while AAPL is up. This visual reinforces the idea of a broadening market beyond just a few leading stocks.

### 6. MRVL (Daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** strong upward movement, gap up
**Key Levels:** 290.79 current price

A daily chart of MRVL showing a 32% increase, reiterating the impact of Jensen Huang's comments and the subsequent buying frenzy. This chart emphasizes the role of sentiment and news in driving significant price movements.

### 7. Sector Weight Technology (ex-MSFT, AAPL, & NVDA) (1990-2024)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC
**Pattern:** decline followed by recent uptick
**Key Levels:** 36% low in June 2024, 49% current weight
**Historical Comparison:** reminiscent of dot-com bubble, property in 2005-2007, hyperscalers in 2021

This chart illustrates the sector weight of technology stocks (excluding Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia) as a percentage of the total market. It shows a long-term decline, reaching a low of 36% in June 2024, followed by a recent uptick to 49%. Atkinson compares this to previous market cycles like the dot-com bubble and the 2021 hyperscaler rally, suggesting a broadening of the market beyond the mega-caps. He asks viewers if they remember trading or investing in 2021.

### 8. Sector Performance (various ETFs) (Intraday (May 27 - June 2))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** semiconductors and software leading, metals picking up

A line chart showing the performance of various sector ETFs. Semiconductors and software are highlighted as leading sectors. Atkinson also points out a breakout in 'usable metals' (copper, iron) about three weeks prior, suggesting government spending and the AI bubble are driving these sectors. He notes that while the AI bubble might be getting 'too wild,' the hardware infrastructure cycle is still moving.

### 9. S&P 500 (2020-2026)

**Bias:** CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH
**Pattern:** uptrend with periods of divergence in advances/declines
**Key Levels:** 7000+ all-time highs
**Historical Comparison:** similar to previous periods where advances lagged all-time highs

This chart highlights periods where the S&P 500 reached all-time highs while the number of advances versus declines over five days was negative. This has happened twice before (marked with red arrows) and is currently happening again. Atkinson interprets this as an early sign of market stagnation, where only a few hyped stocks are moving up, while the broader market is declining. He emphasizes the importance of the advance-decline line as an indicator.

### 10. S&P 500 Forward P/E Valuation Bands (Jan 2025 - Jul 2026)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** upward trend in valuation bands
**Key Levels:** 22x - 8021 target, 19x - 6507 low

The chart shows S&P 500 forward P/E valuation bands. Atkinson notes that the market has seen P/E ratios go up to 23x earnings last year, then down to almost 19x, and recently spiked back up to around 21x. Many analysts have upgraded their S&P 500 targets to 8000 based on a 22x P/E. He expresses skepticism about this target but acknowledges the market's current positive gamma and rally.

### 11. S&P 500 Records At Least One New All-Time High in June (Since 1950) (1950-2026 (June))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC
**Pattern:** historical tendency for positive June returns after new ATHs
**Historical Comparison:** historical seasonality of S&P 500 in June

This bar chart shows the number of new all-time highs (ATHs) in June since 1950 and the corresponding June percentage change. Historically, when an ATH occurs in June, the average return is 2.9% positive, with an 89.5% hit rate. This suggests a seasonal tendency for positive returns and low volatility in June, which aligns with the current market sentiment despite some underlying weaknesses.

### 12. Software Sector ETF IGV Is Crashing... Up (1994-2026)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH
**Pattern:** spike in realized volatility
**Key Levels:** 3.00 peak volatility

This chart shows the realized volatility (up day/down day) for the Software Sector ETF (IGV). Atkinson points out a massive spike in volatility, which he calls a 'crash up.' He notes that such huge moves usually happen on the downside, but in 2026, it's happening on the upside for semiconductors, hardware, and other tech stocks. He attributes this to 'great technicals' and price action, but also warns about the potential for a sharp reversal.

### 13. IBIT - iShares Bitcoin Trust (Intraday (May 26 - May 27))

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** sharp drop after dark pool transaction
**Key Levels:** 43.70 resistance, 42.70 support, 42.20 support

This chart shows a sharp drop in IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust) following a massive dark pool transaction. Atkinson explains that dark pools are off-market transactions between institutions, reported at the end of the session, and this was the largest ever for a Bitcoin ETF. This transaction, combined with Michael Saylor's sale, contributed to Bitcoin's 10% drop.

### 14. $BTC DAILY (Daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend, breaking trendline
**Key Levels:** 76,000 resistance, 72,500 support, 67,500 most traded zone

This chart illustrates Bitcoin's daily price action, showing a clear downtrend. Atkinson highlights a '1 Dark Pool Trade' and 'Saylor Sells 32 BTC' as catalysts for the market's decline. The price has broken through a trendline and a major support level, heading towards the 'Most Traded Zone' around 67,500. He notes that Bitcoin is currently below the 200-day moving average, which is a bearish sign.

### 15. DRAM - Roundhill Memory ETF (Intraday (May 27 - June 2))

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward movement with large transactions
**Key Levels:** 68.00 resistance, 67.00 support, 66.00 support

The DRAM ETF chart shows significant upward movement with several large transactions (marked as #1, #4, #6). Atkinson notes that these are some of the biggest transactions ever recorded on these funds. While he doesn't explicitly state a bias, the context suggests a bullish outlook due to the large institutional buying.

### 16. CBOE - Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (Weekly (2011-2028))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH
**Pattern:** upward trend with recent rejection
**Key Levels:** 300.00 resistance, 100.00 support

The CBOE chart shows a strong upward trend over several years, with a recent massive rejection after hitting a high. Atkinson points out a large transaction (marked as #3) that occurred before the pandemic. He suggests that large transactions, especially dark pool trades, can have significant impacts on markets, leading to quick moves.

### 17. S&P 500 Performance Following Popular U.S. IPOs (Various periods)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** mixed performance after IPOs, average price path shown
**Historical Comparison:** historical data on major IPOs like Google, Facebook, Alibaba, Uber, Arm Holdings

This chart analyzes the S&P 500's performance following popular U.S. IPOs. It shows a mixed bag of returns, with some IPOs leading to positive market paths and others to negative. Atkinson notes that a big IPO like SpaceX is coming, which is creating a lot of energy and retail participation in the markets. He suggests that a hype cycle often precedes volatility around IPOs.

### 18. S&P 500 June Mid-Term Year Seasonality (1950-2025) (June (1950-2025))

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** historical tendency for negative returns in mid-term election years
**Historical Comparison:** historical seasonality of S&P 500 in mid-term election years

This chart displays the S&P 500's June performance in mid-term election years. Historically, June in mid-term years tends to show negative average returns (-2.11% average change) with a low hit rate (36.8% positive). This suggests a seasonal weakness for the market in the current period, which could be exacerbated by other factors.

### 19. VIX Seasonality (2004-2024) (Monthly (2004-2024))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH
**Pattern:** seasonal pattern of VIX, low in summer, spike in fall
**Key Levels:** 14.27 low in July, 18.28 high in October
**Historical Comparison:** historical seasonality of VIX

The VIX seasonality chart shows that volatility tends to be lowest in July and August, then spikes up in October and November, especially during mid-term election years. Atkinson refers to this as the 'calm before the storm,' suggesting that while current volatility is low, a significant spike could be coming in Q3, ahead of mid-term elections.

### 20. DXY - U.S. Dollar Index Futures (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** consolidation, trapped between levels
**Key Levels:** 100.275 resistance, 96.440 support

The U.S. Dollar Index Futures (DXY) chart shows the dollar is currently trapped between key support and resistance levels, consolidating for over 12 months. Atkinson notes a slight double bottom and consolidation, with the market making higher highs and higher lows within this range. He suggests that the dollar, as a major hedge, is not moving much due to this trapped state.

### 21. ADRN - NYSE Advance Decline Ratio (1D)

**Bias:** CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH
**Pattern:** uptrend in ratio, but recent decline in advances
**Key Levels:** 1.34 current

The NYSE Advance Decline Ratio (ADRN) chart shows that while the overall advance-decline line has been going up, the last five days have seen more declining stocks than advancing ones. This is a divergence that Atkinson highlights as an early warning sign, similar to Grant Hawkridge's analysis. He emphasizes that this indicates a weakening of the overall bull trend, as Wall Street might not 'believe' in the broader market strength.

### 22. US500 (2h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** uptrend, holding moving averages
**Key Levels:** 7616.0 high, 7548.0 low, 50 EMA, 200 EMA

The US500 chart shows the market continuing to hold above its moving averages, specifically the 50-exponential moving average (EMA). Atkinson notes that the market has been consistently bouncing off this level since March, indicating a strong uptrend. It's currently at an all-time high, and if it makes a new higher high, the 50 EMA remains a key level to watch.

### 23. NAS100 (2h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** uptrend, holding moving averages
**Key Levels:** 30,257.7 support, 50 EMA, 200 EMA

Similar to the S&P 500, the NAS100 chart shows a strong uptrend, with the market holding above its moving averages. Atkinson points out that the market has seen a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating continued strength. He acknowledges that while the data looks good, the flows (dark pools, clusters, and the weakening advance-decline lines) are the 'question mark' for the market's sustainability.

### 24. S&P 500 GEX (Gamma Exposure) (Daily (Aug 2, 2026))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
**Pattern:** high call volume above spot price, put wall below
**Key Levels:** 7700 call resistance, 7300 put support, 7611 spot price

This GEX chart for the S&P 500 shows a significant amount of call options above the current spot price (7611), particularly around the 7650-7700 zone, and a 'put wall' (strong put support) around 7300. This indicates that market makers are likely long gamma, which tends to suppress volatility and keep the market trending upwards. Atkinson notes that with positive news (Nvidia, Google, Berkshire Hathaway), markets don't usually top until news can't possibly get any better.

### 25. RSPD/RSPS (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** uptrend, risk-on environment
**Key Levels:** 1.73 support

The RSPD/RSPS chart (Consumer Discretionary vs. Consumer Staples) is an indicator of risk-on/risk-off sentiment. Atkinson states that the indicator is still showing Consumer Discretionary beating Staples, which generally means a risk-on environment. This aligns with the current market rally, suggesting investors are still favoring riskier assets.

### 26. MMFI - Percent of Stocks Above 50-Day Average (1D)

**Bias:** CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH
**Pattern:** declining breadth
**Key Levels:** 56.58 current

This chart shows the percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day moving average, which is an indicator of market breadth. Atkinson points out that the breadth is 'not as good as people think,' as the percentage has been declining. This suggests that while some sectors (like tech) are performing well, the overall market participation is not as strong, indicating a concentrated rally rather than a broad-based one.

### 27. CLF2027 - Crude Oil Futures (Jan 2027) (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** uptrend, higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 80.10 current, 76.00 support

The Crude Oil Futures chart for January 2027 shows a clear uptrend, with oil futures making a series of higher highs and higher lows. Atkinson notes that while people might be 'disinterested' in oil, the futures market is still moving upwards. He contrasts this with the broader economy, which he believes is struggling and will need more support, while the stock market (driven by AI hardware) is doing great.

### 28. XLE - State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
**Pattern:** holding above previous lows
**Key Levels:** 60.00 resistance, 56.00 support

The XLE (Energy Sector ETF) chart shows that energy stocks are holding above their previous lows. Atkinson notes that this is leading into certain markets like Brent crude oil finding key support. He suggests that while the market is pushing higher towards $98 a barrel, it hasn't quite made it through that level yet.

### 29. UKOIL - CFDs on Brent Crude Oil (4h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
**Pattern:** lower lows and lower highs, then slight higher high
**Key Levels:** 98.00 resistance, 90.14 support

The Brent Crude Oil chart shows a period of lower lows and lower highs, followed by a slight higher high. Atkinson notes that the market hasn't quite made it through the $98 level, but it's a key zone to watch. He reiterates that a 'falling knife' often needs structure, and this market is currently in that phase.

### 30. DRAM - Roundhill Memory ETF (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** strong uptrend, higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 69.57 current

The DRAM ETF chart shows a strong uptrend with lots of transactions and no significant downside volatility yet. Atkinson highlights a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating continued bullish momentum. He uses this to reinforce the 'abundance mindset' in the market.

### 31. KOSPI (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
**Pattern:** volatile upward movement
**Key Levels:** 8801.49 current

The KOSPI Composite Index chart shows extremely volatile upward movement in recent sessions. Atkinson notes that while it's been volatile, it hasn't shown any real weakness yet. He suggests that this volatility could be a precursor to more significant moves, possibly driven by upcoming IPOs.

### 32. SMH/SPY (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** semiconductors beating the S&P 500
**Key Levels:** 0.8323 current

This chart shows the ratio of the Semiconductor ETF (SMH) to the S&P 500 ETF (SPY), indicating that semiconductors continue to outperform the broader market. Atkinson attributes this to new deals, new arrangements, and a 'broadening of what I think is like an alt season,' where other semiconductors (besides Nvidia) are also performing phenomenally well.

### 33. IGV - iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
**Pattern:** strong upward movement, hitting supply
**Key Levels:** 109.81 supply, 104.73 current

The IGV (Software Sector ETF) chart shows a strong upward movement, hitting the first level of supply around 109.81. Atkinson acknowledges that it makes sense to see volatility around this level, but questions if the trend has changed to the downside yet (which he answers no). He suggests that the market is still intact despite hitting resistance.

### 34. XME - State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** uptrend, improved price action
**Key Levels:** 132.83 current, 126.19 support

The XME (Metals & Mining ETF) chart shows an uptrend with improved price action and concepts. Atkinson notes that metals are doing better than many people think, reinforcing the 'abundance mindset.' He highlights that this sector has been performing well for a while, suggesting continued strength.

### 35. COPPER (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** potential new all-time high
**Key Levels:** 6.6641 resistance, 6.1069 support

The Copper chart shows the commodity potentially making a new all-time high. Atkinson notes that this started with a massive close on May 4th, and the market has continued to make higher highs and higher lows. He highlights that this is a 'usable metal' for infrastructure and build-outs, suggesting continued demand.

### 36. XAU/USD (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** lower lows and lower highs
**Key Levels:** 4593.18 resistance, 4333.48 support, 200-day moving average

The Gold chart shows lower lows and lower highs, indicating a bearish trend. Atkinson notes that while gold is still above its 200-day moving average, it's not above 4600 yet. He mentions reports of the UAE selling gold and central banks reducing their purchases, which are contributing to the downward pressure. He emphasizes that precious metals tend to trade off interest rates and central bank actions.

### 37. SILVER (4h)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** lower lows and lower highs
**Key Levels:** 76.5760 resistance, 74.0000 support

Similar to gold, the Silver chart also shows lower lows and lower highs, indicating a bearish trend. Atkinson briefly mentions this, reinforcing the idea that precious metals are struggling in the current environment.

### 38. 000300 - CSI 300 Index (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
**Pattern:** consolidation after multi-year highs
**Key Levels:** 4988.8199 current, 4800.0000 support

The CSI 300 Index (Chinese market) chart shows that it has broken to new multi-year highs and has been consolidating for the last half-month. Atkinson notes that it has continued to hold around the 20-day moving average on the daily chart, finding a bit of strength. He suggests that this market has actually done a little bit better than some others.

### 39. HSI1! - Hang Seng Index Futures (1W)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH
**Pattern:** spiking off key support
**Key Levels:** 26,246 resistance, 24,912 support

The Hang Seng Index Futures chart shows that it hasn't performed as well as the Chinese market but is spiking off a key support level around 24,800. Atkinson suggests that this could be due to upcoming IPOs in China, which might be bringing some 'hype' into the market.

### 40. BTC/USDT (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** flag pattern, potential next leg down
**Key Levels:** 70,782.71 support, 66,776.33 previous resistance, 65,878.33 previous resistance, 46,686.43 support, 41,913.96 support

The Bitcoin daily chart shows a potential 'flag pattern' forming, which Atkinson interprets as a sign for a 'next leg down.' He highlights that if Bitcoin continues to fall and doesn't find support, it could lead to a 'dump' that gets 'pretty brutal.' He notes that previous dumps have seen prices go below lower lows, and if support isn't found, it opens up the possibility of further significant declines. He emphasizes the importance of the weekly close for confirmation.

### 41. BTC/USDT (1h)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** accelerating to the downside, falling knife
**Key Levels:** 70,782.71 support, 66,776.33 previous resistance, 65,820.00 previous resistance

The Bitcoin 1-hour chart shows an acceleration to the downside, with the market smashing through key support levels. Atkinson describes it as a 'falling knife' at this stage, indicating a rapid and uncontrolled decline. He reiterates that the market hasn't found any support, and the evidence suggests continued downward momentum. He warns that these are 'significant critical levels' for Bitcoin.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is currently in a 'risk-on' environment, but with underlying weaknesses. The rally is concentrated in certain sectors (tech, AI, semiconductors, usable metals) rather than being broad-based, reminiscent of previous concentrated bull markets. There's a seasonal tendency for low volatility in summer months, followed by a potential spike in Q3, especially in mid-term election years. The economy is perceived as struggling, contrasting with the strong stock market performance driven by specific narratives.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Wall Street is doing something different, with more decliners than advances over the last five days, which is a rare early sign of potential market stagnation.
- Marvell Technology (MRVL) saw a 35% jump due to Nvidia CEO's comments, highlighting the impact of sentiment and news.
- Bitcoin (BTC) dropped 10% after Michael Saylor sold 32 BTC and a massive dark pool transaction, breaking key support levels and potentially signaling a 'Bitcoin winter' or further declines.
- Tech (excluding mega-caps) is seeing an uptick in sector weight, reminiscent of previous market cycles like the dot-com bubble and 2021 hyperscalers, suggesting a broadening market.
- Semiconductors and software are leading sectors, with usable metals also picking up, possibly due to government spending and the AI bubble.
- The S&P 500 is at all-time highs, but the divergence in advances vs. declines suggests a concentrated rally, not a broad one.
- Historically, June in mid-term election years tends to be negative for the S&P 500, and VIX seasonality suggests a volatility spike in Q3.
- Software sector ETF (IGV) experienced a 'crash up' with exploding realized volatility, driven by strong technicals and price action.
- Dark pool transactions and large institutional flows are having significant impacts on market movements, often preceding price action that retail investors miss.
- Oil futures are still making higher highs and higher lows, while gold and silver are in downtrends, trading off interest rates and central bank actions.
- Chinese markets (CSI 300) are showing some strength and consolidation after multi-year highs, with upcoming IPOs potentially adding hype.
- Bitcoin is currently in a 'falling knife' scenario, accelerating to the downside and smashing through critical support levels, with no clear bid in sight.

## All Instruments Mentioned
SPX, MRVL, BTC/USDT, NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, AMD, INTC, ORCL, LRCX, AMAT, STX, NFLX, GOOGL, AMZN, TSLA, LLY, MRK, JPM, BAC, MA, V, BRK-B, HD, WM, CAT, GE, XOM, CVX, XLE, DXY, IBIT, DRAM, CBOE, RSPD/RSPS, MMFI, CLF2027, UKOIL, KOSPI, SMH/SPY, IGV, XME, COPPER, XAU/USD, SILVER, 000300, HSI1!

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-06-03 20:01:15*