# Is This The Beginning Of Something Big?
**Date:** 2026-06-10  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EfpoEuSVteQ)

## Main Thesis
The market is at a crossroads with increased volatility, significant put volumes, and potential shifts in interest rate expectations and sector rotations. While some areas show resilience, the overall sentiment is cautious, with a focus on risk management and adapting to changing market dynamics.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. SPY (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** gap fills, downward trend
**Key Levels:** 723.17 gap fill, 685.56 gap fill, 659.72 gap fill

The chart shows SPY with a recent gap fill at 723.17. The speaker notes that institutions often mention gap fills and questions if two more fills at 685.56 and 659.72 could be coming as volatility spikes. He highlights a recent fill and a subsequent rally, but the overall trend appears to be downward, forming lower lows and lower highs.

### 2. NASDAQ 100 (4h)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** dynamic support turning into dynamic resistance
**Key Levels:** 29,600 dynamic resistance

The NASDAQ 100 chart illustrates the 'KISS' principle (Keep It Simple Smart) with the 2-hour 50 exponential moving average acting as dynamic support, then turning into dynamic resistance. The market has been selling off aggressively after hitting this resistance level, indicating a potential downward trend. CPI numbers are coming, which could further impact volatility.

### 3. XAUUSD (Gold Spot) (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** bear market, descending triangle
**Key Levels:** 4,178.51 resistance, 3,991.96 first major support

Gold is entering a bear market once again, with the price currently at 4,178.51 and heading towards the first major support at 3,991.96. The chart shows a clear descending trend, and the speaker suggests focusing on gold as it continues its downward movement.

### 4. Fear & Greed Index (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** rapid shift from greed to fear
**Key Levels:** 30 (Fear)
**Historical Comparison:** similar to 2020

The Fear & Greed Index has rapidly shifted from 'Greed' (56 a week ago, 67 a month ago) to 'Fear' (30) in 2026. This quick change in sentiment, especially being only a couple of percentage points off the all-time high for the S&P 500, is highlighted as a significant indicator of potential market shifts, reminiscent of 2020.

### 5. SNDX (NASDAQ 100 Index Futures) (2h)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** dynamic support turning into dynamic resistance
**Key Levels:** dynamic support/resistance from 50 EMA

The NASDAQ 100 2-hour chart shows the 50 exponential moving average acting as dynamic support, then turning into dynamic resistance. The market has repeatedly tested and failed to break above this resistance, leading to aggressive sell-offs. This technical pattern is seen as a key indicator, especially with upcoming CPI numbers.

### 6. SPX (S&P 500 Index) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** gap fills, downward trend (lower low, lower high)
**Key Levels:** 7,261.08 gap fill, 6,881.07 gap fill, 6,615.90 gap fill

The S&P 500 daily chart shows several gap fills. The first gap at 7,261.08 has been filled, leading to a rally, but the market is now forming lower lows and lower highs, indicating a downward trend. Two more significant gaps at 6,881.07 and 6,615.90 are identified as potential targets due to aggressive market movements in March.

### 7. Sector Performance (Kayfin) (5 days)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** sector rotation

This chart from Kayfin shows sector performance over the last five days. Healthcare has been the best performer, even before the broader market drop. Financials and Utilities are also up, suggesting a defensive rotation and potential breakouts in yields. Technology, metals, solar, clean energy, and semiconductors have struggled, indicating a shift away from growth sectors.

### 8. QQQ & SPY Put Volume (MacroCharts) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** record put volume

The chart from MacroCharts shows record put volume for both QQQ and SPY, despite only a small percentage drop in the market. This is considered unusual, as high put volumes typically occur at market lows, suggesting significant fear or hedging activity.

### 9. SPYM (SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF) (intraday)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** dark pool sweeps
**Historical Comparison:** similar to IBIT's recent sell-off

The SPYM chart from VolumeLeaders.com shows significant dark pool activity, including the fifth largest trade ever recorded on SPYM. A 'sweep' occurred as the S&P made a higher high, indicating institutional urgency to fill orders at any price, which often precedes quick price movements. This is compared to a recent IBIT sell-off after a sweep.

### 10. ESML (iShares ESG Aware MSCI USA Small-Cap ETF) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** clustered transactions

The ESML chart shows clustered transactions, indicating significant institutional activity in small-cap stocks. This suggests that larger players are active around these technical levels, which could be exciting for traders and investors.

### 11. EWY (iShares MSCI South Korea ETF) (intraday)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** number one largest transaction at lows
**Key Levels:** lows at ~175

The EWY chart (South Korea market) shows the number one largest transaction ever recorded at its recent lows, which it is still holding. The speaker emphasizes the significance of this level and suggests that if it breaks, it could be incredibly important for the market.

### 12. QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust) (intraday)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** dark pool activity, bounce and push down

The QQQ chart shows a bounce after a series of transactions, followed by dark pool activity pushing the price down. This highlights the importance of the next 24-48 hours and upcoming CPI numbers due to potential volatility.

### 13. S&P 500 Performance Around CPI Releases (monthly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** mixed performance around CPI

This table from Bluekurtic Market Insights shows S&P 500 performance around CPI releases. Most forecasts for CPI are around 0.25% headline and 0.22% core. Historically, market movements around CPI releases have been volatile and somewhat of a coin flip. If CPI comes in hot (0.35%+), the market could fall 2-3%.

### 14. SOX (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** fall >10% on Friday
**Historical Comparison:** Dot Com Bubble, March 2020 Covid Crash

The SOX index fell over 10% on Friday, an event that has only happened during the Dot Com Bubble and the March 2020 Covid Crash. This indicates extreme market stress in the semiconductor sector.

### 15. Market Expectations for Fed Funds Rate (monthly)

**Bias:** BULLISH (FOR RATES)
**Pattern:** aggregate probabilities favor hikes
**Key Levels:** 5.0%
**Historical Comparison:** 2025 expectations of multiple cuts

This chart from Duality Research shows market expectations for the Fed Funds Rate. Aggregate probabilities now favor rate hikes from October, with potential for two hikes over the next 12 months, pushing rates towards 5%. This is a significant shift from 2025, where multiple cuts were expected. All eyes will be on US 30-year yields and Treasuries.

### 16. IPO Max Drawdown (PollycarpFX Research) (N/A)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** post-IPO bleed
**Key Levels:** -33.6% average drawdown

This chart from PollycarpFX Research illustrates that 'the bleed comes later' for IPOs, with an average maximum drawdown of 33.6% over 3-12 months. This is due to the unlocking of shares. The speaker notes that SpaceX's upcoming IPO could be a monumental event, but also highlights the historical volatility and potential for significant drops post-IPO.

### 17. S&P 500 Forward P/E Valuation Bands (monthly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** high valuation
**Key Levels:** 21x (current), 22x-23x (potential)

The S&P 500 Forward P/E Valuation Bands show the market recently reached 21x, with potential to go to 22x or 23x. The speaker questions if this high valuation is sustainable without more debt being written into the system, especially given the high cost of AI tokens for certain companies, raising concerns about return on investment and a potential 'AI bubble'.

### 18. VIX Seasonality (2004-2024) (monthly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** seasonal volatility spikes
**Key Levels:** VIX > 20

The VIX Seasonality chart shows that volatility often spikes in the back end of June into July during mid-term election years. The speaker questions if the market is heading for a standard mid-term election year based on statistics, which would imply increased volatility and potential sell-offs into October.

### 19. DX1! (US Dollar Index Futures) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Wyckoff-style accumulation
**Key Levels:** 100.410 resistance, 99.925 support

The US Dollar Index Futures chart shows the dollar at a resistance point around 100.410. If it breaks through, it could lead to a rally, potentially driven by safe-haven demand and higher yields. The pattern observed is likened to a Wyckoff-style accumulation, which could precede an upward move.

### 20. AAPL (Apple Inc.) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** crash, swipe on highs
**Key Levels:** 316.68 high, 290.55 support

Apple's chart shows a significant drop of 9.24% over two sessions, which the speaker calls a 'crash' into correction territory. The market went for a 'swipe' on the highs before the drop, and it doesn't appear to have found major support yet, despite being on the 50 exponential moving average.

### 21. MAGS (Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** double topping pattern
**Key Levels:** 65.31 support

The Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) shows a double-topping pattern that has completed. The price went slightly under the 65.31 support but closed above it, which is seen as a good sign. However, the overall technical pattern suggests a bearish outlook.

### 22. MAGS/SPY (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** underperformance

The MAGS/SPY ratio chart indicates that the Magnificent Seven has been performing very poorly relative to the broader S&P 500 over the last month. This suggests that the market is recognizing underlying concerns, even if they are not widely discussed yet.

### 23. AMZN (Amazon.com, Inc.) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL

The Amazon chart is shown briefly, with the speaker noting it 'doesn't look too bad' compared to other tech stocks, but without further detailed analysis.

### 24. MSFT (Microsoft Corp.) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** rally into supply, then drop
**Key Levels:** 410.61 support

Microsoft's chart looks 'a little bit worse' after rallying into a supply zone and then dropping. The speaker highlights the first TFCOT (Traders' Favorite COT) level at 410.61 as a key support.

### 25. NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** weakness after rally
**Key Levels:** 199.85 support

NVIDIA, considered the 'most important stock in the world,' is also looking a bit weak after a rally. The price dropped to its first key support at 199.85. The speaker notes Cathie Wood buying at higher levels, questioning if it's a signal.

### 26. SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** holding up on volatile times
**Key Levels:** 591.01 support

The Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is holding up on volatile times, with extremely large positions being placed. The speaker questions if this is a 'reflex by the dip' from retail investors or part of something larger, asking for viewer opinions on whether it's a topping pattern or a standard dip buy.

### 27. NAS100 (US 100 Cash CFD) (2h)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** lower lows and lower highs
**Key Levels:** 28,966.4 support

The NASDAQ 100 2-hour chart shows a series of lower lows and lower highs, indicating a downward trend. The market has come back to a key support level around 28,966.4. The speaker notes that Wall Street will push to the very ends of both zones (support and resistance).

### 28. SPX (S&P 500 Index) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** big tech driving market, advance-decline line divergence
**Key Levels:** 7,386.66 resistance, 7,346.51 support, 1,805.66 (advance-decline line)
**Historical Comparison:** 2020 rotation

The S&P 500 daily chart shows the index dropping, but the advance-decline line (more stocks advancing than declining) is not dropping as much. This suggests that big tech is driving the market, masking broader weakness. The speaker compares this to the 2020 period where volatility led to a rally and broad market advancement.

### 29. US500 (US 500 Index) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** long-leg doji (potential)
**Key Levels:** 7,496.2 options high level, 7,311.2 options low level, 7,100 weekly 20 MA

The US500 weekly chart shows the market potentially closing as a long-leg doji, indicating indecision. The speaker notes that the weekly 20 moving average is around 7,100, which is often considered a mean reversion level. Options high and low levels for today are marked at 7,496.2 and 7,311.2 respectively.

### 30. US30Y (United States 30 Year Government Bonds Yield) (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH (FOR YIELDS)
**Pattern:** high yields
**Key Levels:** 5.031% resistance, 5.020% current

The US 30-year Government Bonds Yield chart shows yields are still high, sitting at 5.020% and awaiting more news. The speaker emphasizes watching these yields as they are a critical factor in the current market environment.

### 31. US02Y (US Government Bonds 2 YR Yield) (2h)

**Bias:** BULLISH (FOR YIELDS)
**Pattern:** new high
**Key Levels:** 4.185% current, 4.344% new high

The US 2-year Government Bonds Yield chart shows the yield recently closed at a new high on Monday, indicating that yields are spiking up. This is in anticipation of upcoming announcements.

### 32. COPPER/GOLD (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** potential snap of downward trend
**Key Levels:** 0.0013 support, 0.0015 current
**Historical Comparison:** 2020 growth/inflation period

The Copper/Gold ratio chart is about to potentially snap a very long-term downward trend. A higher high was formed a few weeks ago. Historically, if copper goes up against gold, it signals growth and inflation. The speaker notes that this is exactly what just happened, suggesting potential for rising yields.

### 33. HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 80.98 resistance, 79.62 current, 73.50 support

The High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) is holding its own, but not as strongly as it once was. The speaker questions if it's still a reliable indicator of market pain, suggesting further investigation.

### 34. MOVE (ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 97.7454 resistance, 77.0328 current

The MOVE index (bond market volatility) is being watched, but the speaker notes that the signs of a 'freak out' (extreme volatility) are not quite there yet, suggesting it might take a negative gamma event to trigger it.

### 35. VVIX (CBOE VIX Volatility Index) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 134.50 resistance, 95.81 current

The VVIX (volatility of the VIX) is also being monitored, but similar to the MOVE index, it's not yet showing signs of a 'freak out' event, which would likely require a negative gamma event.

### 36. UKOIL (CFDs on Brent Crude Oil) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** lower low, no higher high
**Key Levels:** 90.20 support, 92.19 current, 101.41 resistance

UK Oil shows a slight lower low being formed, but no higher high. The speaker questions if this could be stopping the 'freight train' and moving up, but notes the verdict is out due to the political nature of oil. Energy stocks, however, held up okay over the last five days.

### 37. XAUUSD (Gold Spot) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** free fall, freight train
**Key Levels:** 4,183.51 current, 4,000 support, 4,530.01 most traded zone

Gold is in 'free fall' and acting like a 'freight train,' currently at 4,183.51 and heading towards the 4,000 level. The speaker explains that gold hates rising yields, which is what the market is currently seeing. He notes that 'nothing good happens underneath' the daily 200 moving average (around 4,300), and structure may be needed to stop the fall.

### 38. SILVER (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** new lows, downward trend
**Key Levels:** 64.2250 current, 50.2999 support

Silver is also in a downward trend, forming new lows. The speaker notes that silver generally follows gold, so its weakness is consistent with gold's performance.

### 39. SMH/SPY (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** technical bear zone, volatility
**Key Levels:** 0.8019 current, 0.7473 support

The SMH/SPY ratio shows that semiconductors have entered a 'technical bear zone' (over 20% down from highs) and are under the daily 200 moving average. The chart shows significant volatility, making the speaker uneasy and suggesting a 'chill' approach, waiting for more evidence.

### 40. EWY (iShares MSCI South Korea ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** holding most traded zone
**Key Levels:** 184.05 current, 180.00 most traded zone

The EWY chart shows the market continuing to hold its 'most traded zone' around 180.00, which also saw the number one transaction. The speaker emphasizes that all eyes are on this market due to its significance.

### 41. SNDK (SanDisk Corporation) (4h)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** lower high, potential nasty drop
**Key Levels:** 1,627.00 resistance, 1,400 support

SanDisk is holding onto the daily 20 moving average, but it made a lower high. The speaker suggests that if it drops down again, it 'could get kind of nasty quickly,' indicating a 'wait and see' approach.

### 42. XLV (State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** new higher high, accumulation
**Key Levels:** 154.57 resistance, 144.39 support

XLV (Healthcare) is trying to make a new higher high after a period of accumulation. This is a defensive sector that has been outperforming, suggesting a rotation in the market.

### 43. XLP (State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Key Levels:** 84.10 current, 86.74 resistance

XLP (Consumer Staples) is holding its own and outperforming, consistent with a defensive market rotation.

### 44. XLV/SPY (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** outperforming SPY
**Key Levels:** 0.2097 current, 0.1986 support

The XLV/SPY ratio shows that Healthcare has been beating the S&P 500 considerably for a while. This reinforces the idea of Wall Street showing its hand in flows rather than news, with defensive sectors gaining strength.

### 45. COPPER (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 6.3105 current, 6.4652 resistance

Copper is still holding, but not as strong as it was. The speaker notes it's not yet clear if it's going down or up, being at an accumulation or distribution zone.

### 46. META (Meta Platforms Inc.) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** struggling, lower high
**Key Levels:** 584.59 current, 642.14 resistance

Meta is struggling and not moving up much, making a lower high. This is consistent with the idea that the Magnificent Seven are starting to weaken, despite their hardware investments.

### 47. HSI1! (Hang Seng Index Futures) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** head and shoulders (potential), pressuring lows
**Key Levels:** 24,249 current, 26,062 resistance, 22,636 support

Chinese markets (Hang Seng) are not looking good, pressuring lows and potentially forming a head and shoulders pattern. This is seen as a critical point for these markets.

### 48. US2000 (US 2000 Index) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** broadening pattern
**Key Levels:** 2,855.9 current, 2,742.5 support, 2,438.6 first major target

The Russell 2000 is holding up better than the broader market, showing a broadening pattern. This is considered a late-stage cycle market, and the speaker focuses on earnings for future direction.

### 49. IWM/SPY (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** broadening pattern
**Key Levels:** 0.3867 current, 0.3917 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** 2007-2008

The IWM/SPY ratio shows that Russell is holding better than the S&P 500, with a broadening pattern. While some see this as bullish, the speaker views it as a late-cycle indicator, similar to 2007-2008, and remains focused on earnings.

### 50. BTCUSDT (Bitcoin / TetherUS) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** lower lows and lower highs
**Key Levels:** 61,506.85 current, 60,010.99 support, 64,000 resistance

Bitcoin is still in a downward trend, forming lower lows and lower highs. The speaker references a meme about Saylor's Bitcoin buys and sells, highlighting that even large purchases haven't stopped the market's decline. To stop the 'freight train,' more than current action is needed, and the price went under a key low.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is experiencing a shift from growth-driven sectors (tech, semiconductors) to defensive sectors (healthcare, financials, utilities), indicating increased caution and potential for higher-for-longer interest rates. There's a strong emphasis on intermarket correlations, particularly between the US dollar, yields, and commodities, suggesting a broader rebalancing of the global economy. The speaker also highlights the unusual amount of put options and dark pool activity as signs of institutional hedging and potential volatility ahead.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Watch for potential gap fills in SPY at 685.56 and 659.72.
- Pay attention to the 2-hour 50 exponential moving average on NASDAQ 100 as a key dynamic resistance.
- Focus on gold as it enters a bear market, with 3,991.96 as the first major support.
- Be cautious of extreme market sentiment shifts, as seen in the Fear & Greed Index.
- Monitor CPI numbers closely for potential market volatility and rate hike implications.
- Be aware of the 'bleed' that often comes 3-12 months after IPOs, especially with SpaceX's upcoming launch.
- Recognize that high P/E valuations in the S&P 500 may be hard to justify without more debt in the system.
- Prepare for potential VIX spikes in late June and July, consistent with mid-term election year seasonality.
- Watch for a potential rally in the US Dollar Index if it breaks through resistance, which could have flow-on effects.
- Exercise risk management due to increased volatility and potential for negative gamma events.
- Observe the underperformance of the Magnificent Seven relative to the S&P 500.
- Pay attention to the broadening pattern in Russell 2000 as a late-stage cycle indicator.
- Be aware that Bitcoin is in a downward trend, and stopping the 'freight train' will require significant action.
- Note the outperformance of defensive sectors like Healthcare and Consumer Staples.

## All Instruments Mentioned
SPY, NASDAQ 100, XAUUSD, AAPL, MAGS, AMZN, MSFT, NVDA, SMH, NAS100, SPX, US500, US30Y, US02Y, COPPER/GOLD, HYG, MOVE, VVIX, UKOIL, SILVER, SNDK, XLV, XLP, HSI1!, US2000, IWM/SPY, BTCUSDT, EUR/USD, USD/JPY

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-06-10 20:02:58*