# We Don't See This Often...
**Date:** 2026-06-11  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hdLCjzkip_k)

## Main Thesis
The market is showing signs of increased volatility and potential rotation, with defensive sectors outperforming and tech/semiconductors showing weakness. While some indicators suggest a potential mean reversion, the bond market is not yet showing panic, and the overall sentiment is shifting, especially with the upcoming SpaceX IPO and concerning CPI data.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. SPY (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Hindenburg Omen triggers near peak
**Key Levels:** 725.43 gap fill, 723.17, 700.00, 685.56, 659.72

The SPY chart shows five Hindenburg Omen triggers in 2026, all near the peak. The market is currently pulling back towards the 725.43 gap fill, with further support levels at 700.00, 685.56, and 659.72. The speaker highlights the significance of these omens as potential indicators of market tops.

### 2. MANGOs (Meta, Anthropic, NVIDIA, Google, OpenAI, SpaceX) (N/A)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL

This slide introduces the 'MANGOs' acronym for major AI-related companies, suggesting their importance in the current market narrative. No specific chart data is presented here, but it sets the stage for discussions on tech and IPOs.

### 3. XAUUSD (Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar) (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** crash through 4000s
**Key Levels:** 4097.75, 3991.96 (First Major Support)

Gold is crashing through the 4000s, hitting a first major support at 3991.96. The speaker questions if this is a mean reversion or a systemic problem, noting the significant drop in one of the largest hedges in the world.

### 4. RSP/SPY (Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF / SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** rotation from growth to defensive

This chart shows the ratio of the equal-weighted S&P 500 to the market-cap-weighted S&P 500, indicating rotation. The speaker notes that defensive markets (staples, healthcare, energy, regional banking) are starting to pick up, while tech and industrials are falling, suggesting underlying weakness and a shift in market flows.

### 5. KOSPI Composite Index (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** pullback towards 50-day moving average
**Key Levels:** 7753.93

The KOSPI Composite Index is pulling back towards its 50-day moving average, indicating weakness in hardware and semiconductors. The speaker highlights this as one of the world's biggest trades currently.

### 6. If you don't buy SpaceX / If you buy SpaceX (N/A)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL

This meme-like image shows two diverging lines, one green (up) and one red (down), with text suggesting different outcomes based on buying SpaceX. It's used to introduce the discussion about the upcoming SpaceX IPO.

### 7. Sector Performance (intraday)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** rotation from growth to defensive

This chart displays the intraday performance of various sectors. Energy stocks are performing best over the last 24 hours, showing stabilization in oil barrels due to escalating geopolitical tensions. Defensive sectors like staples and healthcare are also doing better, while technology and semiconductors are falling.

### 8. SSPX (S&P 500 Index) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** pullback towards mean reversion
**Key Levels:** 7261.08 (Gap Fill), 7141.87 (Most Traded Zone), 6881.07 (Gap Fill), 6615.90 (Gap Fill)

The S&P 500 daily chart shows the market coming down, with the 2-hour 50-period moving average acting as dynamic resistance. The market has filled one gap and is heading towards the 'Most Traded Zone' between 7141.87 and 7261.08, which aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, the point of control, and the 20-weekly moving average. Further gap fills are at 6881.07 and 6615.90.

### 9. CPI & Core CPI - MoM % Change / YoY % Change (monthly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** CPI actual exceeding forecast

This bar chart shows CPI and Core CPI month-over-month and year-over-year changes. The CPI actuals have been coming in worse than forecasts, with the year-on-year CPI at 4.2% and core CPI also increasing. This indicates a significant inflation problem.

### 10. May CPI Item Contribution to CPI Index (N/A)

**Bias:** BEARISH

This chart breaks down the contribution of different items to the May CPI. Energy Services contributed 31.1% to the CPI increase. The speaker warns that if oil prices continue to spike, it could lead to further economic destruction.

### 11. CPI Inflation During Major Oil Supply Disruptions (yearly (1971-2026))

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** spikes in CPI during oil disruptions
**Historical Comparison:** Arab Oil Embargo, Iranian Revolution, Iraq Invades Kuwait, Russia-Ukraine War, U.S.-Iran War

This historical chart shows CPI inflation during major oil supply disruptions. Geopolitical tensions have caused oil prices to move up, leading to a narrative of market decline. Past periods of oil spikes (e.g., Arab Oil Embargo, Iranian Revolution, Iraq Invades Kuwait, Russia-Ukraine War) have consistently led to increased inflation and rising energy stocks (XLE).

### 12. S&P 500: 5 Hindenburg Omen Triggers in One Month (yearly (1970-2026))

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Hindenburg Omen clusters
**Historical Comparison:** S&P 500 forward performance since 2010 after 5 Hindenburg Omens in one month

This chart shows the S&P 500 with red dots indicating Hindenburg Omen triggers. Five triggers in one month are considered a 'scary read.' While the 12-month forward performance is often positive (66.7% bullish), the 2-month forward performance is only 36% bullish after such clusters. This suggests short-term weakness and potential market topping or sideways action.

### 13. SPYM (SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF) (intraday)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** dark pools and sweeps

This chart from VolumeLeaders shows intraday price action for SPYM, highlighting massive dark pools and sweeps. A new 'number one' trade occurred near the lows, raising questions about whether it's a dip purchase or a sell-off. The speaker notes the increasing importance of watching this ETF.

### 14. SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** large transactions (breakout/sell)

This chart from VolumeLeaders shows historical large transactions on SPY. Most periods, excluding a breakout, have seen stabilization (sideways movement) or sell-offs after large transactions near highs. A recent 'number one' transaction is noted, suggesting potential for lower lows.

### 15. CQQQ (Invesco China Technology ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** tight range with large transactions

The CQQQ chart shows a tight trading range with numerous large transactions. The CSI 300 (300 stocks) seems to be performing better than the Hang Seng. The speaker notes that all eyes are on the upcoming SpaceX IPO, which is considered 'history in the making'.

### 16. SPEX (SpaceX) - TTM Revenue vs. B2T Valuation Peers (N/A)

**Bias:** BEARISH (VALUATION)
**Historical Comparison:** SpaceX revenue vs. Meta, TSMC, Tesla, Broadcom

This chart from PolycarpFX Research compares SpaceX's TTM revenue to its valuation peers. SpaceX is 'valued like a giant, earns like a mid-cap,' with significantly lower earnings compared to Meta, TSMC, Tesla, and Broadcom. While acknowledging future potential, the speaker highlights a concerning story about an individual stashing away money and borrowing to buy SpaceX stock, indicating potential retail FOMO.

### 17. Gold Seasonality (monthly (1974-2024))

**Bias:** BULLISH (SEASONAL)
**Pattern:** seasonal bottom in June

This chart shows gold seasonality, which typically bottoms out in June. The speaker notes that gold has been 'thrashed' recently, with everyone 'hating on gold' as it approaches the 4000 level. This could indicate a potential bottom based on seasonal trends.

### 18. Bitcoin (BTO) (daily (2023-2026))

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** freight train down, collapsing ETF flows
**Key Levels:** 70000 (threshold for potential 'Danbar' top)

Bitcoin is experiencing a 'freight train down,' with rolling 30-day Bitcoin ETF flows collapsing from bullish to significantly bearish. This is a huge flip in sentiment, and the speaker emphasizes the need to find 'pressure support' for Bitcoin.

### 19. DXY (U.S. Dollar Index Futures) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Wyckoff base accumulation
**Key Levels:** 100.410 (resistance), 99.915, 98.040 (support)

The US Dollar Index continues to be at resistance around 100.410, with a potential Wyckoff base accumulation pattern. The weekly chart will be important to watch for further information.

### 20. SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** high volatility, potential double top
**Key Levels:** 570.91

The SMH ETF has been 'wild,' showing significant volatility with 7% swings each day. While it hasn't crashed, the volatility indicates uncertainty about valuations. If it loses its upward trend, the speaker will look for it to underperform SPY.

### 21. SMH/SPY (VanEck Semiconductor ETF / SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** holding up for now
**Key Levels:** 0.7870

The SMH/SPY ratio is still holding up, indicating that semiconductors are not yet significantly underperforming the broader market, despite recent volatility.

### 22. NAS100 (US 100 Cash CFD) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** following moving average, potential mean reversion
**Key Levels:** 28690.7 (resistance), 27066.0 (weekly 20-MA)

The NASDAQ 100 is continuing to follow its 50-exponential moving average on the 2-hour chart, which has acted as dynamic resistance twice. The weekly 20-moving average sits around 27,000, suggesting a potential mean reversion target.

### 23. SPX (S&P 500 Index) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** slight decline in advance-decline line
**Key Levels:** 7346.51, 7267.00, 7143.38, 6980.68

The S&P 500 is showing a slight decline in its advance-decline line, but not a change in trend. The bond market is not yet showing signs of panic. Key levels to watch are around 7100.

### 24. US500 (S&P 500 Index Futures) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** holding daily 50-EMA
**Key Levels:** 7347.0 (Options High Level Today), 7189.3 (Options Low Level Today)

The US500 futures are holding on the daily 50-exponential moving average, which sometimes acts as dynamic support. The weekly 20-moving average around 7100 is a key level. Options high and low levels for today are 7347.0 and 7189.3 respectively.

### 25. SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** pullback towards key levels
**Key Levels:** 725.43 (Gap Fill), 710.94, 685.56, 659.72

The SPY chart shows the market pulling back towards the 7100 zone, which is considered a very important area for the S&P 500.

### 26. GEX (Gamma Exposure) for SPX (intraday (2026-06-10))

**Bias:** BEARISH (SHORT-TERM)
**Pattern:** negative gamma below 7300
**Key Levels:** 7300 (negative gamma threshold), 7200 (put support), 8000 (call resistance)

The GEX profile for SPX shows that going underneath 7300 puts the market into negative gamma. Large strikes are seen around 7100, 7200, and 7300. If the market doesn't hold above 7300, it could lead to further downside action, requiring hedging by the end of the week. If it goes to 6800, it aligns with weekly 20-moving averages (mean reversion).

### 27. GEX (Gamma Exposure) for SPX (multiple expirations) (intraday (2026-06-11, 06-12, 06-18, 07-17))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** attempt to hold 7300
**Key Levels:** 7300 (holding the line)

This chart shows GEX profiles for multiple SPX expirations. The 7300 level is trying to 'hold the line' for this week's expiration. If markets are going to bounce, they will likely try to stay above 7300 to avoid further downside action.

### 28. GEX (Gamma Exposure) for QQQ (intraday (2026-06-10))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** sitting at put support
**Key Levels:** 35 (put support), 50 (call resistance)

The GEX profile for QQQ shows it sitting at the 35 put support level. Bitcoin held up relatively well because it was 'slashed' into these areas quickly. Gold also hit a major level, and all these instruments are starting to line up.

### 29. GEX (Gamma Exposure) for NVDA (intraday (2026-06-10))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** call wall at 220, put support at 185
**Key Levels:** 185 (put support), 220 (call resistance)

The GEX profile for NVIDIA shows a call wall at 220 and put support at 185. The speaker notes that NVIDIA dipping below 200 was trending on social media, indicating increased attention and potential volatility.

### 30. US02Y (US Government Bonds 2-YR Yield) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Key Levels:** 4.139%

The US 2-year yield shows no significant changes, indicating that the short end of the bond market is not yet panicking.

### 31. US10Y (US Government Bonds 10-YR Yield) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** moving up slightly
**Key Levels:** 4.548%

The US 10-year yield is moving up slightly across the board, but still no major freak-out in the debt markets.

### 32. BAMHOOHYM2 (ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** no freak-out in debt markets
**Key Levels:** 2.78

This chart, representing high-yield junk bonds, shows no signs of a freak-out in the debt markets yet. This is a key indicator to watch for broader market panic.

### 33. KRE (State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF) (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 71.64, 65.57 (First Resistance), 59.09

Regional banks (KRE) are technically making higher highs and potentially higher lows, indicating strength. This is contrary to a full-blown panic scenario.

### 34. KRE/SPY (State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF / SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** holding its own
**Key Levels:** 0.0988
**Historical Comparison:** freak-out in 2023

The KRE/SPY ratio shows regional banks holding their own, not underperforming the broader market significantly. While there was a 'freak-out' in 2023, the current situation is more stable.

### 35. VIX (CBOE VIX Volatility Index) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (INCREASED VOLATILITY)
**Pattern:** spike above 20
**Key Levels:** 108.16, 20 (threshold for volatility)

The VIX has spiked above 20, indicating increased volatility. The speaker advises caution and risk management, as markets become more volatile above this level.

### 36. IWM/SPY (iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund / SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH (RUSSELL)
**Pattern:** Russell beating SPY
**Key Levels:** 0.3888

The Russell 2000 (IWM) is actually beating the S&P 500 (SPY) over the last couple of days, which is unusual during a flash panic crash where everything typically sells off. This suggests a rotation rather than a full-blown panic.

### 37. IWM (iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** holding up well
**Key Levels:** 288.11, 282.05

The Russell 2000 is holding up very well, not falling below previous support zones, further supporting the idea that it's not a full-blown market panic.

### 38. RSP (Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 206.53

The equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP) is still showing a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating a healthy market structure despite recent volatility.

### 39. MAGS (Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** weakening due to FOMO
**Key Levels:** 64.22

The Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) has been weakening. The speaker attributes this to 'FOMO' (fear of missing out) driving companies to buy hardware and semiconductors, causing their stock prices to rise, but now they are pulling back. Google's recent $80 billion spending is cited as an example.

### 40. UKOIL (CFDs on Brent Crude Oil) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (STABILIZED)
**Pattern:** spiked off the lows, potential technical accumulation
**Key Levels:** 94.17, 90.20 (lows)

UK oil has spiked off its lows around 90.20. If it breaks through the previous high, it could form a technical accumulation pattern. Oil markets have stabilized but are not yet in a 'fear' level.

### 41. COPPER (CFDs on Copper) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (CONFUSING)
**Pattern:** two weekly rejections at highs
**Key Levels:** 6.2557

Copper has seen a slowdown in industrials, with two weekly rejections at the highs. This is considered 'very confusing' and 'very nasty' by the street. If it closes above these rejections, it would be bullish, but the current pattern is strange.

### 42. XAUUSD (Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** bounced off support
**Key Levels:** 4484.03 (Most Traded Zone), 4012.07 (next major key level)

Gold did not quite hit 4000 but bounced off the next major key level. Everything bounced off support zones at the time of recording, suggesting a temporary reprieve.

### 43. XAUUSD (Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar) (2-hour)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** oversold, series of lower lows and lower highs
**Key Levels:** 4530.01 (Most Traded Zone), 4012.07

Gold is quite oversold, showing a series of lower lows and lower highs. The 4012.07 level is a key level, and there are mostly bearish articles about gold. It's a 'freight train' into this level, so looking for structure to form.

### 44. SILVER (CFDs on Silver (US$ / OZ)) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** similar to gold, but less weak
**Key Levels:** 50.2999

Silver is showing a similar pattern to gold, coming down to lows, but it's not as weak as gold. Gold tends to lead silver, so it's being watched closely.

### 45. SMH/SPY (VanEck Semiconductor ETF / SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** holding up
**Key Levels:** 0.7870

Semiconductors versus SPY is still holding up, as previously discussed.

### 46. EWY (iShares MSCI South Korea ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (VOLATILE)
**Pattern:** extreme volatility around number one transaction
**Key Levels:** 178.45, 200.36 (most traded area)

The KOSPI market (EWY) is trading with extreme volatility around the 'number one' transaction and the most traded area. Dropping below this level would enter 'fear of the unknown' territory, highlighting the importance of these pivotal zones.

### 47. SNDK (SanDisk Corporation) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (VOLATILE)
**Pattern:** extremely volatile, holding daily 20-MA
**Key Levels:** 1643.23

SanDisk, a popular hardware stock, is extremely volatile but continues to hold its daily 20-moving average. This indicates resilience despite the market's overall uncertainty.

### 48. XLV/SPY (Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund / SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH (DEFENSIVE)
**Pattern:** defensive markets improving
**Key Levels:** 0.2107

Defensive markets like healthcare have improved, showing a rotation into safer assets.

### 49. XLP (State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH (DEFENSIVE)
**Pattern:** staples improving for 6 days
**Key Levels:** 85.49

Consumer staples have improved for six consecutive days, further confirming the rotation into defensive sectors.

### 50. XLF (State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** market rotating, not panicking
**Key Levels:** 52.23, 50.26 (2021-2023 scenario)
**Historical Comparison:** 2021-2023 scenario (market rotating, not panicking)

The financial sector (XLF) shows the market rotating, similar to the 2021-2023 scenario where the market rotated and bonds didn't freak out, but tech slowed. The speaker emphasizes watching price action and flows, and to 'patience, react, don't predict'.

### 51. BTCUSD (Bitcoin / TetherUS) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL (EARLY DAYS FOR STRUCTURE)
**Pattern:** freight train down, structure forming
**Key Levels:** 62244.01, 60010.99

Bitcoin is still a 'freight train down,' but structure is starting to form around the 60,000 level. It's still early days, and the large dark pool activity will be watched closely.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is experiencing a shift from growth-oriented sectors (tech, semiconductors) to defensive sectors (energy, staples, healthcare, regional banking). This rotation is driven by increased volatility, concerning CPI data, and geopolitical tensions. While some indicators suggest potential for mean reversion, the bond market is not yet showing signs of panic, indicating a rotation rather than a full-blown market crash. The upcoming SpaceX IPO is a significant event that could further influence market sentiment.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Watch for further weakness in tech and semiconductors.
- Monitor defensive sectors for continued outperformance.
- Pay attention to oil prices and geopolitical tensions as they impact CPI.
- Observe the bond market for signs of panic, as it's not yet present.
- Be cautious with highly leveraged assets, especially in volatile markets.
- Watch the 7100 zone for the S&P 500 as a key support level.
- Monitor the 7300 level for SPX options, as negative gamma could lead to further downside.
- Track Bitcoin for pressure support as it experiences a 'freight train down'.
- Exercise patience and react to market action rather than predicting outcomes.

## All Instruments Mentioned
SPY, Meta, Anthropic, NVIDIA, Google, OpenAI, SpaceX, XAUUSD, RSP/SPY, KOSPI Composite Index, SSPX, CPI, Core CPI, XLE, SPYM, CQQQ, DXY, SMH, SMH/SPY, NAS100, US500, US02Y, US10Y, BAMHOOHYM2, KRE, KRE/SPY, VIX, IWM/SPY, IWM, RSP, MAGS, UKOIL, COPPER, SILVER, EWY, SNDK, XLV/SPY, XLP, XLF, BTCUSD

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-06-11 20:01:05*