# YOU CAN’T UNSEE THIS…
**Date:** 2026-06-14  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ozxv--dgLmw)

## Main Thesis
The market is currently in a late-stage cycle with rotation from Magnificent 7 to small caps and regional banks, driven by increasing debt concerns and potential Fed policy shifts. While volatility is expected, the overall market structure remains resilient, suggesting continued upward movement in certain sectors.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. SPCX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Key Levels:** 135.00 IPO list price, 160.95 close price

SpaceX IPO, the world's largest ever, launched at $135.00 and closed at $160.95, up 19.22%. It is now the 7th largest business on the market with a market cap of $2.104 trillion. This event is considered historical and its performance over the next 15 days will be important.

### 2. IWM/MAGS (Russell 2000 / Magnificent 7 ratio) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH ON SMALL CAPS, BEARISH ON MAGNIFICENT 7
**Pattern:** inverse head and shoulders
**Key Levels:** 4.00 support, 4.50 resistance

The chart shows a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern, indicating a shift in market leadership. The Magnificent 7 (MAGS) is underperforming the broader market (SPY) due to concerns about debt, while small-cap stocks (IWM) are showing signs of strength, breaking above resistance levels. This suggests a rotation of capital from large-cap tech to smaller, potentially undervalued companies.

### 3. Technology - Earnings Estimates (monthly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward trend in earnings estimates
**Key Levels:** 2025 EPS $168, 2026 EPS $261, 2027 EPS $336

Technology earnings estimates continue to be upgraded by Wall Street analysts, with significant increases projected for 2026 and 2027. This indicates strong underlying fundamentals for the technology sector, despite some concerns about market bubbles.

### 4. Sector Performance (intraday (last 5 days))

**Bias:** BULLISH ON TECHNOLOGY/SEMICONDUCTORS, BEARISH ON DEFENSIVE
**Pattern:** rotation from defensive to technology/semiconductors

Over the last five days, defensive sectors like agriculture and metals & mining have seen outflows, while technology and semiconductors have experienced inflows. This rotation occurred the day before the SpaceX IPO, suggesting institutional money is shifting towards growth sectors. Regional banks and major banks also saw upward movement, breaking technical resistance.

### 5. S&P 500 Performance Following a New Fed Chair's First FOMC Meeting (3-month forward price path)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUS
**Pattern:** mixed performance, often negative in early stages
**Historical Comparison:** historical data since 1948

Historically, the S&P 500's performance following a new Fed Chair's first FOMC meeting is mixed, with only 37.5% of instances showing positive returns over the first three months. This suggests that the market often experiences volatility and uncertainty during these periods, regardless of the initial policy changes. The next 15 days for SpaceX are important.

### 6. SPCX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp) (intraday (1-minute))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** initial surge followed by consolidation
**Key Levels:** 170.00 support, 175.00 resistance

SpaceX saw its largest transaction at the open, followed by consolidation. The chart highlights key volume-weighted average price (VWAP) levels and shows how large transactions influence price action. The speaker emphasizes tracking new IPOs and their subsequent performance.

### 7. TQQQ (ProShares UltraPro QQQ) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** monster transaction (sweep)
**Key Levels:** 75.00 support, 80.00 resistance

A 'monster transaction' (sweep) in TQQQ occurred near the bottom of a Nasdaq dip, indicating strong institutional buying interest. This suggests that despite concerns about an 'AI bubble,' large players are still accumulating positions, driving the market higher.

### 8. SSO (ProShares Ultra S&P500) (intraday (1-minute))

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** massive transaction followed by rally
**Key Levels:** 63.00 support, 65.00 resistance

A massive transaction (10th largest ever recorded) in SSO, an S&P 500 ETF, occurred just before a Trump announcement, leading to a significant rally. This demonstrates the impact of large capital flows and news events on market direction, even if the market initially makes a slight lower low.

### 9. S&P 500: 5 Hindenburg Omen Triggers in One Month (monthly)

**Bias:** CAUTIOUS
**Pattern:** Hindenburg Omen clusters
**Historical Comparison:** historical data since 1970

The chart shows five Hindenburg Omen triggers within one month, a bearish technical indicator. While the speaker acknowledges that this indicator often triggers without significant market downturns, clusters near the top of a rally are noteworthy. The speaker emphasizes combining this with price action, data, and flows for a comprehensive view.

### 10. Gold Seasonality (XAU/USD) (monthly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** seasonal bottom in June
**Key Levels:** 4000 support
**Historical Comparison:** 1970-2026 seasonality

Gold seasonality typically shows a bottom around June. This year, gold experienced a 'hyper-run' followed by a 'blow-off top crash,' but has since hit the 4000 level and is starting to form structure. The speaker maintains a bullish long-term view on gold as a currency, especially with global money printing and geopolitical issues.

### 11. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) (daily)

**Bias:** CAUTIOUS
**Pattern:** huge fall from grace
**Key Levels:** 7500 support (threshold for detrimental clinical tip)

Bitcoin has seen a 'huge fall from grace,' with 30-day ETF flows reaching their lowest since launch. While Michael Saylor and others have bought more Bitcoin than they sold, the market is currently underperforming. The speaker notes that a break below 7500 would be a 'detrimental clinical tip' and suggests watching for structural formation.

### 12. VIX Seasonality (2004-2024) (monthly)

**Bias:** CAUTIOUS
**Pattern:** seasonal increase in volatility from August to October
**Key Levels:** 13.73 low in July, 19.15 high in January
**Historical Comparison:** 20-year average

VIX seasonality shows increased volatility from August to October, with July typically being the lowest. The speaker notes increased volatility in recent weeks and warns that the upcoming months could see further spikes, especially with the election approaching. This reinforces the need for caution and risk management.

### 13. DXY (US Dollar Index Futures) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** consolidation below resistance
**Key Levels:** 100.410 resistance, 99.490 support

The US Dollar Index is consolidating below a key resistance level of 100.410. No breakout has occurred yet. The speaker has set an alert for a move above 100.605, indicating this is a critical level to watch for potential directional change.

### 14. SMH/SPY (Semiconductor ETF / S&P 500 ETF ratio) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward trend, holding dynamic support
**Key Levels:** 0.8358 resistance, 0.7626 support

The SMH/SPY ratio continues its upward trend, holding above its 50-period exponential moving average. The speaker notes that if this chart isn't losing its trend, the overall market remains healthy. This ratio is a key indicator of market strength, as semiconductors are a leading sector.

### 15. NAS100 (US 100 Cash CFD) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUS
**Pattern:** pullback to dynamic support, now at resistance
**Key Levels:** 29678.4 resistance, 29654.4 resistance, 28800 support
**Historical Comparison:** similar to previous pullback in May

The Nasdaq experienced a pullback, found dynamic support at its 50-period exponential moving average, and has now rallied back to a key resistance zone. The speaker highlights the similarity to a previous pullback in May, where the market rallied after hitting support. A break above current resistance would suggest further upside, while failure could lead to a retest of lower support.

### 16. SPX (S&P 500 Index) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** advance-decline line making new highs
**Key Levels:** 7346.51 resistance, 7128.40 support, 1805.66 advance-decline line support

The S&P 500 advance-decline line has made a new high, indicating that more stocks are advancing than declining. This is a positive sign for the broader market, suggesting that a new high could be achieved relatively soon. The speaker notes that despite volatility, this underlying breadth is encouraging.

### 17. US500 (S&P 500 Index Futures) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** consolidation at resistance
**Key Levels:** 7500.7 options high level, 7361.8 options low level

The S&P 500 futures are currently at a resistance level, with options data showing significant call resistance at 7500 and put support at 7300. The speaker notes that drawing VWAPs from the top shows resistance in this area. The market is waiting for a clear directional move, with positive signs from the Nasdaq underneath the hood.

### 18. US10Y (US Government Bonds 10YR Yield) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** consolidation below resistance
**Key Levels:** 4.625% resistance, 4.483% support

The 10-year US Treasury yield is consolidating below a key resistance level. The speaker emphasizes that this chart is important to watch, as a breakout could signal changes in market sentiment and Fed policy expectations.

### 19. US02Y (US Government Bonds 2YR Yield) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** series of higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 4.300% resistance, 3.992% support

The 2-year US Treasury yield is in an upward trend with a series of higher highs and higher lows. The speaker highlights this as a key yield to watch, as its movement will influence Fed decisions and market direction. A continued rise in yields could signal further tightening or sustained high rates.

### 20. US30Y (United States 30 Year Government Bonds Yield) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** consolidation below resistance
**Key Levels:** 5.137% resistance, 4.971% support

The 30-year US Treasury yield is consolidating below a key resistance level. A breakout above this level could cause concerns in the markets, as it would signal higher long-term borrowing costs and potentially impact economic growth.

### 21. KRE (State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout from consolidation pit
**Key Levels:** 72.85 resistance, 70.83 support

The regional banking ETF (KRE) has broken out of a consolidation 'pit' and closed at a new high, now approaching resistance. This suggests renewed strength in the banking sector, which is often a sign of a late-stage market cycle. The speaker notes that technical analysis indicates a bullish move.

### 22. KRE/SPY (Regional Banking ETF / S&P 500 ETF ratio) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward performance
**Key Levels:** 0.1000 resistance, 0.0900 support

The KRE/SPY ratio shows that regional banks are outperforming the S&P 500 for the first time in a while. This is a significant intermarket signal, suggesting that capital is rotating into smaller, more cyclical sectors, which is characteristic of a late-stage market cycle.

### 23. XLF (State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** new closure high after consolidation
**Key Levels:** 53.34 resistance, 51.48 support

The financial sector ETF (XLF) has achieved a new closure high after months of consolidation. This indicates a strong breakout and suggests that money is flowing into financials, further supporting the narrative of a late-stage market cycle with rotation into value sectors.

### 24. SPACE (VettaFi Space Index) (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** hyper-run followed by crash
**Key Levels:** 2800 resistance, 2200 support

The VettaFi Space Index experienced a 'hyper-run' ahead of the SpaceX IPO, followed by a significant crash, losing over 20% in a few sessions. The speaker dislikes these types of crashes, interpreting them as a sign that 'someone big has said enough is enough' and expects the market to 'float around for a while.'

### 25. PLTR (Palantir Technologies Inc.) (weekly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** market floating and rotating
**Key Levels:** 157.24 resistance, 127.99 support

Palantir's stock is currently 'floating and rotating,' with the market moving capital to different areas. This reflects the broader market trend of rotation, where specific stocks may not be making strong directional moves but capital is shifting between sectors.

### 26. IWM (iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** new closure high
**Key Levels:** 297.62 resistance, 289.51 support

The Russell 2000 (IWM) has achieved a new closure high, outperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. This is a strong indicator of a late-stage market cycle, where small-cap stocks tend to perform well. The speaker plans to analyze specific sub-sectors of small caps in future videos.

### 27. ARKG (ARK Genomic Revolution ETF) (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** breakout and close above resistance
**Key Levels:** 37.95 resistance, 33.47 support

The ARKG ETF, focused on genomics, has broken out and closed above a key resistance level. This suggests a bullish move in the genomics sector, which is part of the broader rotation into growth-oriented areas of the market.

### 28. XLI (State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF) (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** huge bullish hammer candle
**Key Levels:** 177.59 resistance, 172.00 support

The XLI ETF, representing the industrial sector, formed a 'huge bullish hammer' candle, indicating strong buying pressure. Despite previous indecision, this candlestick pattern suggests a potential upward continuation, although it is still contending with resistance.

### 29. MAGS/SPY (Magnificent 7 / S&P 500 ratio) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH ON MAGNIFICENT 7
**Pattern:** underperformance of Magnificent 7
**Key Levels:** 0.0913 resistance, 0.0875 support

The Magnificent 7 (MAGS) has been underperforming the S&P 500 (SPY) since June 2nd, falling below its March 31st performance level. This indicates that the 'credit default swaps' (debt) on these large-cap tech stocks are becoming a focus, and their underperformance is a key theme in the current market.

### 30. COPPER (CFDs on Copper) (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** holding higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 6.5660 resistance, 6.1710 support

Copper has 'saved itself' by holding a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, despite some 'terrifying candles.' The speaker emphasizes the importance of waiting for market confirmation before reacting to volatile price action. This suggests underlying strength in the commodity sector.

### 31. XAU/USD (Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO BULLISH
**Pattern:** bounce from support
**Key Levels:** 4530.01 resistance, 4012.07 support

Gold came down to almost 4000, tapped that level, and found a bounce. While full structural confirmation is not yet present, there are encouraging signs. The speaker notes that people often get scared by possibilities rather than the reality in front of them, highlighting the importance of objective analysis.

### 32. SILVER (CFDs on Silver) (4-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** coming up to resistance with slight trend change
**Key Levels:** 68.8684 resistance, 68.0070 support

Silver is approaching a resistance area, showing a slight change of trend from the lows. While still generally in a downward trend, some good structural signs are starting to appear in popular metals, suggesting potential for a bounce or consolidation.

### 33. XLE (State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF) (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** doing nothing (consolidation)
**Key Levels:** 57.55 resistance, 54.61 support

The energy sector ETF (XLE) is currently 'doing nothing,' consolidating sideways. Despite this, the speaker notes that the US oil market has fallen significantly, but the overall energy stocks are not showing strong directional movement, making it difficult to predict.

### 34. USOIL (CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)) (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** falling trend with lower highs and lower lows
**Key Levels:** 96.000 resistance, 84.264 support

The US oil market has fallen significantly, breaking below key support levels. The trend continues downward with lower highs and lower lows. The speaker notes the political nature of oil prices and the difficulty in predicting exact movements without clear technical signals, emphasizing the need for 'really nice technicals' for a reversal.

### 35. SNDK (SanDisk Corporation) (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upgraded by 'boffins' (analysts)
**Key Levels:** 1980.10 resistance, 1720.91 support
**Historical Comparison:** similar to GameStop's movie-worthy rally

SanDisk's stock has been upgraded by analysts ('boffins') and has seen a significant rally. The speaker compares this to GameStop's movie-worthy rally, suggesting that SanDisk could also experience a dramatic upward movement. This highlights the impact of analyst upgrades and market sentiment on stock performance.

### 36. BTC/USDT (Bitcoin / TetherUS) (daily)

**Bias:** CAUTIOUS
**Pattern:** freight train down, needs structure
**Key Levels:** 60010.99 support, 66371.01 resistance

Bitcoin has experienced a 'freight train down,' falling significantly. While there's a slight improvement, it needs to establish clear structural support before a sustained rally. The speaker advises caution and notes that a break below 60010.99 would be a significant bearish signal.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is in a late-stage cycle, characterized by a rotation of capital from large-cap tech (Magnificent 7) to small-cap and regional banking sectors. This shift is driven by concerns about debt levels in large tech companies and a potential accommodative stance from the Fed. Volatility is expected to increase in the coming months, particularly from August to October, due to historical seasonality and upcoming Fed announcements. Despite some bearish indicators like Hindenburg Omens, the overall market structure remains resilient, with more stocks advancing than declining, suggesting that a broader market downturn is not imminent unless key support levels in critical sectors are breached.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Watch SpaceX's performance closely over the next 15 days.
- Be cautious of increasing market volatility from August to October.
- Monitor the US Dollar Index (DXY) for a breakout above 100.605.
- Keep an eye on the US 2-year and 30-year bond yields for potential rate changes.
- Focus on the debt levels of Magnificent 7 stocks as a key market driver.
- Be cautious with Bitcoin, as it needs to establish clear structural support before a sustained rally.

## All Instruments Mentioned
SPCX, IWM, MAGS, SPY, TQQQ, SSO, XAU/USD, BTC/USD, VIX, DXY, SMH, NAS100, SPX, US500, US10Y, US02Y, US30Y, KRE, XLF, SPACE, PLTR, ARKG, XLI, COPPER, SILVER, XLE, USOIL, SNDK, BTC/USDT

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-06-14 20:01:11*