# Wall Street Doesn't Like This...
**Date:** 2026-06-17  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cJWA1eGwOuI)

## Main Thesis
The market is experiencing high volatility, particularly in tech and semiconductors, with a potential shift towards precious metals and small-cap stocks. The Fed's upcoming FOMC meeting and the implied rate hikes suggest continued market chop and uncertainty, while Bitcoin shows negative ETF flows despite some recent recovery.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. SPCX (15m)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** intraday volatility, gap up and subsequent drop
**Key Levels:** 225.82 high, 195.02 low, 201.87 current

SpaceX saw a 13% intraday move, gapping up and then dropping significantly, closing slightly above its gap-up price. This indicates wild volatility, which the presenter suggests paying attention to over the next couple of sessions. The move from high to low was 13.94%.

### 2. DRAM (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** new number one dark pool cluster
**Key Levels:** 72.00 high, 68.12 current

DRAM (Roundhill Memory ETF) shows a new 'number one' dark pool cluster appearing in the hardware sector. Previous clusters led to a sell-off, and a new cluster is forming. The presenter asks if this is a buy or sell, noting that more price action is needed to confirm.

### 3. USOIL (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** collapse
**Key Levels:** 76.057 current

US Oil is collapsing, continuing a downward trend.

### 4. NAS100 (2h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** volatility at the top, potential kiss of resistance
**Key Levels:** 30,500 resistance, 29,680.1 resistance, 28,500 support

The Nasdaq is showing increased volatility at the top, with multiple touches of resistance around 30,500 and 29,680.1. The presenter questions if the market should keep it simple and smart, implying a potential pullback to dynamic support levels.

### 5. BITCOIN (N/A)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Saylor buys vs. Saylor sells

A meme showing 'Saylor buys 2000 Bitcoins' with a small green candle and 'Saylor sells 32 Bitcoins' with a large red candle, highlighting market sentiment and volatility around large transactions.

### 6. Market Map (Finviz) (1-day performance)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** sector rotation

The market map shows technology stocks (NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, TSLA) mostly down, while financials (JPM, BAC, WFC, C, AXP) are up. Space, internet, AI, semiconductors, and quantum computing sectors are down, while precious metals are picking up.

### 7. DRAM (N/A)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** massive cluster around previous point

VolumeLeaders.com chart for DRAM shows massive clusters around a previous point that led to a sell-off, and now a new 'number one' cluster is appearing. The presenter asks if this is a buy or sell, suggesting more price action is needed.

### 8. SPCX (15m)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** intraday volatility, gap up and subsequent drop
**Key Levels:** 225.82 high, 195.02 low
**Historical Comparison:** IPO hype cycle

SpaceX saw a 13% intraday move, gapping up and then dropping significantly. The presenter notes that IPOs often come with a lot of hype and then simmer off as unlocks come through. The question is whether this time will be different, given the volatility.

### 9. MAGS/SSPY (Daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** underperformance of Magnificent 7 vs. S&P

A chart showing the ratio of Magnificent 7 stocks to the S&P 500, indicating a significant underperformance of the Magnificent 7 with a new low being formed. This raises concerns about the return on investment (ROI) of AI.

### 10. QQQ Put Volume (N/A)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** new record put volume

Macro Charts on X shows new record put volume for QQQ and SPY, leading to a rally. This suggests that Wall Street has been taking a lot of puts, and the market has been moving in the opposite direction.

### 11. S&P 500 Performance Following a New Fed Chair's First FOMC Meeting (3-month price path)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** historical market reaction to new Fed chairs
**Historical Comparison:** McCabe, Martin, Burns, Volcker, Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen, Powell

A chart from BlueKurtic Market Insights showing S&P 500 performance following the first FOMC meeting of new Fed chairs since 1948. Historically, the next two weeks and three months often see tighter ranges or even negative returns, suggesting potential chop in the market.

### 12. June 2027 Implied Rate vs. Fed Funds Rate (N/A)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** market expectations for rate hikes
**Key Levels:** 3.99% implied rate, 3.25% Fed Funds upper bound, 3.10% terminal rate

Duality Research chart showing that the June 2027 implied rate remains 80 basis points above the neutral rate. The market expects a certain number of rate hikes by June 2027. The presenter questions whether the new Fed chair will cut or raise rates, suggesting a potential for neutrality but also market volatility based on words.

### 13. Technology - Earnings Estimates (Jan 2025 - Jul 2026)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** rising earnings estimates
**Key Levels:** $336 (2027 EPS), $292 (2026 EPS), $261 (2028 EPS), $168 (2025 EPS)

Duality Research chart showing rising earnings estimates for technology stocks through 2027 and 2028. The presenter emphasizes the importance of earnings and IPOs, especially in the AI and hardware trades, and the need to watch for CapEx spend.

### 14. SIWM/SMAGS Weekly Chart (Weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** inverse head and shoulders, IWM outperforming MAGS
**Key Levels:** 4.40 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** since 2020 late period

A chart showing the ratio of IWM (Russell 2000) to MAGS (Magnificent 7), indicating that IWM has started to outperform MAGS, a historical moment not seen since late 2020. This suggests a rotation into small-cap stocks, which are often less profitable companies like regional banks and biotechnology.

### 15. GLD Gold ETF Net Flows (3-Months) (2015-2026)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** capitulation in net flows

Macro Charts shows net flows for GLD (Gold ETF) over 3 months, indicating capitulation with super negative flows. This makes sense as gold hit critical demand levels and saw a strong initial reaction with a 'wick' coming through, suggesting excitement in the market.

### 16. Gold Seasonality (1971-2016)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** seasonal trends for gold

Polycarp Research chart showing gold seasonality, suggesting that July, August, and September are often more positive for gold. Gold stocks (GDX) can be volatile, but this is mostly due to seasonal weakness.

### 17. Percentage of Central Banks Expecting Change in Gold Reserve Holdings (2019-2026)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** increasing central bank gold purchasing

BlueKurtic Market Insights chart showing an increasing percentage of central banks expecting to increase their gold reserve holdings. This trend started around the beginning of 2024, coinciding with technical patterns going bullish on gold.

### 18. SCO - ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** cluster trades, free fall
**Key Levels:** 28.00 resistance, 26.00 support, 24.00 support, 22.00 support

SCO (UltraShort Crude Oil) shows a lot of cluster trades. Crude oil is in a 'free fall' or 'falling knife' scenario, with significant drops. This has affected the XLE sector but not as much as the barrel itself.

### 19. Bitcoin Rolling 30-Day Bitcoin ETF Flows (2023-2026)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** negative ETF flows, dark pool sweep
**Key Levels:** 9500 threshold for financial tactical ops

Bitcoin has been pretty negative, selling off for a long time. Recently, a dark pool sweep led to Michael Saylor selling some Bitcoin (though he bought more since). There's been a massive net outflow, and when key supports are lost, markets can get brutal.

### 20. Bitcoin ETF Flow (US$m) (May 29 - Jun 16, 2026)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** negative ETF flows in early June

Farside Investors chart showing Bitcoin ETF flows. While there's been a slight positive trend in the last 3-4 days, early June saw very negative flows, indicating a bearish sentiment for Bitcoin.

### 21. DXY 1! (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** failed breakout, downward trend
**Key Levels:** 103.810 resistance, 100.410 resistance, 99.275 current

The US Dollar (DXY) has not broken through resistance and is currently going down. With the upcoming FOMC meeting and interest rate decision (expected to be on hold), a break through this resistance could signal a very different story for risk-on/risk-off sentiment.

### 22. SMH/SPY (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** high volatility, underperformance of semiconductors
**Key Levels:** 0.8500 resistance, 0.8210 current, 0.7926 support

The ratio of Semiconductors (SMH) to S&P 500 (SPY) shows high volatility. While it remains in an upward trend on the daily 20-moving average, the underperformance of semiconductors over the last 24 hours (down 4.26%) is significant.

### 23. NAS100 (15m)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** volatile price action, testing resistance
**Key Levels:** 30,700 all-time highs, 29,678.4 resistance

The Nasdaq has come off its almost all-time highs and dropped back down, testing the 29,678.4 resistance level. Historically, when this level is dropped, the market tends to come back up and test it from a dynamic resistance perspective.

### 24. SPX (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** gap up, potential gap fill, broadening pattern
**Key Levels:** 7,600 resistance, 7,432.79 gap fill, 7,346.51 support, 1,805.66 support

The S&P 500 has gapped up, leaving a big gap behind. People often look to fill these gaps, which would be around 7,432.79. The advance-decline line has made a new all-time high, indicating a broadening pattern with small-caps, mid-caps, and value stocks doing better. There's some weakness over the last 24 hours.

### 25. US500 (4h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** options levels, potential gap fill
**Key Levels:** 7,578.5 options high level, 7,447.7 options low level

The US500 futures chart shows updated options high and low levels. The low level sits very close to the gap zone, which could mean the Nasdaq would drop to the 50 on the 2-hour chart. Currently, this is not the evidence seen.

### 26. Net GEX All Expirations for SPX (N/A)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** call and put walls
**Key Levels:** 7,600 call resistance, 7,300 put support, 7,512 spot price

MenthorQ chart showing Net GEX for all SPX expirations. 7,600 is the major call wall, 7,500 is the second major call wall, and 7,300 is the biggest put wall. The market has remained pretty bullish due to many puts across all expirations a week ago.

### 27. Net GEX All Expirations for SPX (multiple charts) (N/A)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** call and put walls across expirations
**Key Levels:** 7,500 call wall

Multiple MenthorQ charts showing Net GEX for SPX across different expirations. 7,500 is a very large call wall over the next 24 hours, which could keep the market a little lower. The current price is 7,512.

### 28. Net GEX All Expirations for QQQ (N/A)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** call and put walls
**Key Levels:** 740 call resistance, 700 put support, 715 put support, 729.9 spot price

MenthorQ chart showing Net GEX for QQQ. 740 seems to be the most called level, while 700 (where puts were seen the other day) and 715 are where other puts are. Interesting levels to watch.

### 29. Net GEX All Expirations for IBIT (N/A)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** holding put zones
**Key Levels:** 38.5 call resistance, 35 put support, 37 spot price

MenthorQ chart showing Net GEX for IBIT (Bitcoin ETF). It's holding 37 and 35, which are two important put zones.

### 30. Net GEX All Expirations for NVDA (N/A)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** call and put walls
**Key Levels:** 210 call resistance, 185 put support, 207.4 spot price

MenthorQ chart showing Net GEX for NVDA. 210 is a pretty important call resistance level to watch in the future.

### 31. Net GEX All Expirations for TSLA (N/A)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** call and put walls, money flowing out
**Key Levels:** 420 call resistance, 380 put support, 404.7 spot price

MenthorQ chart showing Net GEX for TSLA. Tesla has been under pressure, with speculation that money is flowing out of Tesla and potentially into SpaceX. This has kept the stock hovering around the 380-400 put zone.

### 32. US02YID (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** holding higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 4.372% high, 4.056% current

The US 2-year yield is holding up in a series of higher highs and higher lows. More information from the Fed will be coming through, and a report will be done once the new Fed chair's thoughts are known.

### 33. XLI (1W)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** bullish hammer, gap up, all-time highs
**Key Levels:** 179.85 current

XLI (State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF) has been breaking out, with a very good weekly close and a strong bullish hammer. The market has gapped above that, and is currently at all-time highs.

### 34. COPPER (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** resilient, potential higher high close
**Key Levels:** 6.6676 resistance, 6.1710 support, 6.5043 current

Copper futures (often considered 'Doctor Copper' for economic health) are still pretty resilient. If a new higher high close is achieved, it could press markets higher, especially metals and usable metals.

### 35. XLF (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** rallying, good last sessions
**Key Levels:** 55.70 high, 51.82 support, 54.35 current

XLF (State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF) has been rallying again, likely off the back of deregulation and more debt creation. It had a good couple of last sessions, which hasn't been the case for some time.

### 36. USOIL (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** dropping, lower lows and lower highs
**Key Levels:** 92.618 high, 76.054 current, 76.943 resistance

US Oil is dropping big time, continuing to make lower lows and lower highs. There isn't much major demand in sight, with previous resistance zones around 76. Going into smaller timeframes, it's a quite aggressive sell.

### 37. SMH/SPY (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 0.8488 high, 0.8210 current

Semiconductors versus SPY is making a series of higher highs and higher lows, with no real change in trend.

### 38. SNDK (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** hit over 2000, then fell back below, holding 20-day MA
**Key Levels:** 2,166.72 high, 1,991.55 current, 1,507.36 support

SanDisk hit over 2,000 this week, then fell straight back below that level over the last 24 hours. It's still holding the 20-daily moving average, which is currently the backbone of these markets. The presenter questions what other good news markets could expect.

### 39. SPCX (15m)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** 13% session volatility, wick rejection
**Key Levels:** 225.63 high, 195.31 low, 201.87 current

SpaceX saw a 13% session move, being up 17% at one point. It ended up, down, and all around, closing at a similar price by the end of the day. This created a giant wick rejection, which holds energy and excitement. The presenter questions if someone was excited when the price hit 220+.

### 40. MAGS/SPY (1D)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** island reversal to the upside, very weak
**Key Levels:** 0.0927 high, 0.0885 current

Magnificent 7 stocks versus SPY have been a little stronger than SPY in recent days, with a small island reversal to the upside. However, overall, it's been very weak, and Mag 7 stocks have not been performing well.

### 41. IWM (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** series of higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 308.08 high, 292.08 current

IWM (Russell 2000) is showing a series of higher highs and higher lows.

### 42. VTV (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** rallying up, higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 226.59 high, 218.03 current

VTV (Vanguard Value ETF) has still been rallying up, with higher highs and higher lows.

### 43. RSP (1D)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 213.56 high, 212.17 current

RSP (Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF) is also showing higher highs and higher lows for now.

### 44. ARKG (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** volatile, slight improvement in technicals
**Key Levels:** 43.78 high, 33.31 support, 34.88 current

ARKG (ARK Genomic Revolution ETF) is extremely volatile. It has seen a little bit of improvement in terms of higher highs and higher lows on the technicals, but the results are still very volatile.

### 45. SILVER (4h)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher high formed
**Key Levels:** 74.0691 high, 68.8684 support, 70.2134 current

Silver formed a higher high over the last two sessions.

### 46. XAUUSD (4h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** came back to resistance, found key level
**Key Levels:** 4,345.88 resistance, 4,012.07 support, 4,332.51 current

Gold has come back up to resistance and found a key level.

### 47. GDX (4h)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** dropping, fast rally, back at critical resistance
**Key Levels:** 96.00 high, 87.15 resistance, 76.00 support, 87.24 current

GDX (VanEck Gold Miners ETF) has been dropping in a downward trend, then had an extremely fast rally, and is now back at a critical level of supply/resistance. The presenter will keep tracking and watching gold closely.

### 48. EWY (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** proxy for Kospi, large transaction level
**Key Levels:** 218.74 high, 180.63 support, 205.91 current

EWY (iShares MSCI South Korea ETF), a proxy for the Kospi, shows a large transaction level and why it found some support there.

### 49. KOSPI (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** holding up at flat
**Key Levels:** 9,435.25 high, 7,428.26 support, 8,727.18 current

The Kospi is holding up at flat, similar to DRAM, indicating where a lot of hardware stocks are. It's been a wild ride, but volatility still seems to be around.

### 50. BTCUSDT (1D)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** recovered, found daily 20-MA and previous heavy trade area
**Key Levels:** 72,500 high, 60,010.99 support, 65,861.66 current

Bitcoin has recovered, found the daily 20-moving average, and found the previous heavy trade area. There are still question marks for Bitcoin, but some improvements on flow. The net negative flow has started to lessen, but it was a super oversold capitulation potentially.

### 51. Forex Factory Calendar (N/A)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** upcoming economic events

The Forex Factory Calendar highlights upcoming economic events, particularly the FOMC press conference at 2:30 PM on Wednesday. This is a pretty important event, as seen from BlueKurtic's details, and can have dramatic implications for markets over the coming weeks and months.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is in a late-cycle style, characterized by hyperactivity and FOMO, as seen in the Kospi market and semiconductor stocks. There's a rotation from tech/semiconductors towards financials, precious metals, and small-cap stocks. The US is in a calm period during mid-term election years, with lower VIX in June and July, but things can get pretty wild.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Pay attention to volatility in SpaceX and other tech stocks.
- Watch for further price action in DRAM to determine buy/sell signals.
- Keep it simple and smart with the Nasdaq, focusing on dynamic support levels.
- Be aware of the historical market reactions to new Fed chairs, which often involve tighter ranges or negative returns in the short term.
- Focus on earnings, IPOs, and CapEx spend, especially in the AI and hardware trades.
- Track the performance of IWM versus MAGS as a sign of sector rotation.
- Monitor gold flows and seasonal trends, as central banks are increasing gold reserve holdings.
- Be cautious with crude oil due to its aggressive sell-off.
- Watch Bitcoin for further recovery and flow improvements, but expect the unexpected.
- Pay attention to the FOMC press conference for potential market-moving statements.

## All Instruments Mentioned
SPCX, DRAM, USOIL, NAS100, BITCOIN, MAGS, SSPY, QQQ, SPY, GLD, GDX, SCO, IBIT, NVDA, TSLA, US02YID, XLI, COPPER, XLF, SNDK, IWM, VTV, RSP, ARKG, SILVER, XAUUSD, EWY, KOSPI, BTCUSDT, DXY

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-06-17 20:01:03*