# The Worlds Biggest Hedge Is On The Move…
**Date:** 2026-06-19  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8xjYBuGTB4M)

## Main Thesis
The market is experiencing massive options expirations and trade volumes, particularly in tech and new IPOs like SpaceX, leading to a potential 'June Swoon' sell-off. While some indicators suggest a bullish trend, extreme retail investor cash allocation and Hindenburg Omen triggers signal caution, with a possible shift towards risk-off sentiment and increased volatility.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. DXY (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** potential Wyckoff accumulation
**Key Levels:** 101.00 resistance, 99.00 support

The DXY is showing a strong weekly close, reaching its highest level in over a year. It's potentially forming a Wyckoff accumulation pattern, suggesting a move towards the next equilibrium level around 103.825. A rising dollar implies short-term yields could increase and might lead to hedging by large players, potentially signaling a risk-off environment.

### 2. SPX (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** gap fill
**Key Levels:** 7428.99 gap fill, 7539.06 resistance

The SPX chart shows a gap fill around 7428.99. The market is currently making higher highs and higher lows, indicating an intact bullish trend despite recent volatility. The video highlights the significance of options expirations and their impact on market movements.

### 3. SPX (table (June Quadruple Witching Events Since 2000))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL/BEARISH
**Historical Comparison:** historical performance during June quadruple witching events

Analysis of past June quadruple witching events shows that only 27% of the time were markets bullish over the next five days following the event. The event day itself is a 'coin flip' session, but the post-expiration period tends to be bearish, with an average 5-day change of -0.31% and a median of -0.17%.

### 4. SPX (line chart (S&P 500 Index Returns In June 1950-2025))

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** June Swoon
**Historical Comparison:** historical S&P 500 performance in June

The chart illustrates the 'June Swoon' phenomenon, where the S&P 500 historically experiences a sell-off in the latter half of June, often wiping out earlier gains. The current market position aligns with the historical start of this swoon, raising concerns about potential downside, especially given recent options activity.

### 5. SPY (intraday (9:30 AM - 12:00 PM))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** monstrous transaction cluster
**Key Levels:** 747.90 price, 745.00 support

A 'monstrous transaction' of $14.6 billion across 38 trades occurred on SPY, marking the fourth largest one-day cluster since its inception. This massive volume, particularly at the opening price, suggests significant institutional activity, possibly funds swapping between ETFs, providing extreme liquidity.

### 6. SPY (monthly (2004-2026))

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward trend with increasing liquidity
**Key Levels:** 400 resistance, 200 support

The long-term SPY chart shows a consistent upward trend with increasing liquidity. The video suggests that funds might be swapping out of other ETFs and into SPY, providing extreme liquidity. This could lead to a very large volatile move, especially with mid-term election years and Q3 earnings approaching.

### 7. SPCX (intraday)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** massive trade volume
**Key Levels:** 185.00 spot price, 190.00 resistance, 180.00 support

SpaceX (SPCX) is experiencing massive trade volume, with $12 billion in transactions across 57 trades at close, and a single trade of $9 billion. This is highlighted as the biggest ever for a new IPO (though only one week old). The unusual volume raises questions about market manipulation or significant institutional interest.

### 8. Market Heatmap (Finviz) (daily)

**Bias:** MIXED

The heatmap shows a mixed market, with technology (NVDA, GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, AAPL) generally green, while financials (BAC, JPM, WFC) and some industrials (GE, CAT) are red. Consumer cyclical (AMZN, TSLA) is also green. The video notes that 'risk-on' sectors like consumer goods, semiconductors, quantum computing, and hardware are performing well, indicating continued piling into these areas.

### 9. S&P 500 (table (6 Hindenburg Omen Triggers in 1 Month))

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** Hindenburg Omen triggers
**Historical Comparison:** S&P 500 forward performance since 1970 after Hindenburg Omen triggers

Six Hindenburg Omen triggers have been identified in one month, a rare event. Historically, these triggers don't immediately lead to a downturn but often precede significant market corrections. The table shows that after such clusters, markets tend to be bearish over the next 5-10 days, with a low percentage of positive returns.

### 10. SPX (monthly (1998-Now))

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** retail investors cash allocation
**Key Levels:** 13% extreme low cash level
**Historical Comparison:** similar to 1998, 2000, 2018, 2021

Retail investors' cash allocation is at an 'extreme low level' (13% on a 10-month moving average), similar to periods before major market corrections (1998, 2000, 2018, 2021). This suggests retail investors are 'all in,' which historically precedes market tops. The video draws parallels to the dot-com bubble and the current AI revolution.

### 11. S&P 500 (multiple (High Beta vs Low Volatility, Cyclical vs Defensive, US Dollar (Inverted), S&P 500 Advance Decline Line, High Yield Bonds vs Treasury Bond))

**Bias:** MIXED
**Pattern:** divergence/confirmation

The charts show mixed signals. High Beta vs Low Volatility and Cyclical vs Defensive are showing confirmation of the S&P 500's upward trend. However, the US Dollar (inverted) is showing divergence, indicating potential risk coming into the market. The S&P 500 Advance Decline Line is confirming the rally, while High Yield Bonds vs Treasury Bond is also showing confirmation. The dollar's recent breakout suggests risk-off sentiment, possibly due to Fed comments.

### 12. S&P 500 (table (Performance Following a New Fed Chair's First FOMC Meeting))

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** average price path
**Historical Comparison:** S&P 500 forward performance since 1948

Historically, the average price path following a new Fed Chair's first FOMC meeting shows a period of weakness over the next 2-3 months. This aligns with the 'June Swoon' and suggests potential for a 'buy the rumor, sell the fact' scenario around Q3 earnings. The video notes that the Fed's recent press conference, led by a new chair, could lead to increased volatility.

### 13. GLD (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** capitulation
**Key Levels:** Capitulation levels

GLD (Gold ETF) is showing widespread capitulation across all major precious metals ETFs, with massive ETF outflows. Historically, capitulation often precedes a bounce. While interest rate hikes are generally not good for gold, the extreme selling could indicate a bottom is near. The video suggests watching for signs of stability.

### 14. Gold Seasonality (monthly (1974-2026))

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** seasonal strength in July
**Historical Comparison:** historical gold seasonality

Gold seasonality charts indicate that June into July is often a period of seasonal strength for gold. This aligns with the idea of a potential bounce after recent capitulation, though gold stocks might weaken with the broader market later in the year.

### 15. Bitcoin (daily (2023-2025))

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** rolling 30-day Bitcoin ETF flows
**Key Levels:** 70000 threshold for general top

Bitcoin ETF flows are incredibly bad, showing significant negative flows. The chart indicates that to stop a 'freight train' of selling, market structure is needed, which is currently lacking. The video notes that despite some recent positivity, a proper buy signal hasn't emerged, and large inflows are still absent.

### 16. Bitcoin ETF Flow (US$m) (table (June 2026))

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** negative flows

The table of Bitcoin ETF flows for June 2026 confirms significant negative flows, with substantial selling coming into the capitulation. Despite some small positive sessions, a proper 'buy' hasn't been seen, indicating continued weakness and a lack of large inflows into Bitcoin ETFs.

### 17. SMH/SPY (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 0.80 support, 0.90 resistance

The SMH/SPY ratio, representing semiconductors relative to the broader market, is still making a series of higher highs and higher lows. This indicates continued bullishness in semiconductors, a key 'pick and shovel' sector for the AI revolution. The market is still looking strong, despite the long weekend and post-Opex volatility.

### 18. NAS100 (4-hour)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher high
**Key Levels:** 30281.3 support, 30339.6 resistance

The NAS100 made a higher high, suggesting further strength. While there was slight weakness, the overall trend remains strong. The chart shows a bounce off support and a move towards resistance, indicating continued upward momentum.

### 19. QQQ (2-hour)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** gap fills
**Key Levels:** 723.38 gap fill, 739.67 resistance

QQQ successfully filled multiple gaps, including those left behind earlier. This 'filling' action suggests market efficiency. The video notes that a lot of filling has occurred, but some gaps remain. The overall price action is still bullish, with a higher high desired for confirmation.

### 20. QQQ (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** huge wick rejection
**Key Levels:** 723.38 gap fill, 740.62 resistance

The weekly QQQ chart shows a huge wick rejection coming off another huge wick rejection. This is not typically a bearish sign, especially with the weekly close. It suggests strong buying interest at lower levels, preventing a deeper sell-off.

### 21. DRAM (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward trend
**Key Levels:** 76.71 resistance, 50.00 support

DRAM (Roundhill Memory ETF) is showing a strong upward trend. The video mentions a 'number one transaction' in DRAM, indicating significant volume. Despite this, it's difficult to stop these markets, suggesting continued momentum. The chart shows a strong rally with minor pullbacks.

### 22. SPX (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** advanced decline line going up
**Key Levels:** 7432.79 support, 7549.53 resistance

The S&P 500 daily chart shows the advanced decline line going up, meaning more stocks are advancing than declining. This is a bullish breadth indicator. While most gains are in semiconductors and hardware, the overall market structure remains intact with higher highs and higher lows. A gap fill occurred, and the market rallied up.

### 23. US500 (4-hour)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** choppy around options levels
**Key Levels:** 7595.7 options high level, 7403.0 options low level
**Historical Comparison:** similar to 1998-1999 period

The US500 futures chart shows the market chopping around the options high and low levels. Increased volatility was observed a few weeks ago, reminiscent of the 1998-1999 period. The video suggests that some stocks were selling off by 20%+, indicating capitulation. The market is currently consolidating around these key options levels.

### 24. Net GEX All Expirations for SPX (timestamp: 2026-06-18 16:14 EST)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** squeeze into close
**Key Levels:** 7500 equilibrium, 7700 call resistance, 7300 put support

The SPX GEX chart shows a squeeze into the close, with the market managing to return to the 7500 equilibrium level. Wall Street successfully kept the price away from major call and put walls. The 7500 puts were 'sad' as the market closed right on them, indicating a strategic move by institutional players.

### 25. Net GEX All Expirations for SPX (multiple charts) (timestamp: 2026-06-18 16:14 EST)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** multiple expirations
**Key Levels:** 7500 equilibrium

Multiple GEX charts for SPX expirations show consistent closing around the 7500 equilibrium level. This reinforces the idea of strategic positioning by large players to manage options expirations, preventing significant moves beyond key strike prices.

### 26. Net GEX All Expirations for QQQ (timestamp: 2026-06-18 15:59 EST)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** managed expiration
**Key Levels:** 700 put level, 720, 730, 750 strike prices

For QQQ, the 700 level was a major put level, and the market managed a very nice expiration right in the middle of the call and put walls. This suggests a well-managed expiration, beneficial for option writers rather than buyers.

### 27. Net GEX All Expirations for SPCX (timestamp: 2026-06-18 15:59 EST)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** put and call strikes
**Key Levels:** 185 spot price, 235 call resistance, 190 put support

For SpaceX (SPCX), the GEX chart shows puts starting to come through, with all expiration strikes appearing. People got excited at 235 and 225, which are now becoming call walls for the future. Volume is just starting to appear, indicating early options activity for this new IPO.

### 28. Net GEX All Expirations for GLD (timestamp: 2026-06-18 15:59 EST)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** signs of weakness
**Key Levels:** 387.1 spot price, 405 call resistance, 360 put support

GLD (Gold ETF) is showing signs of weakness, but it received a strong rejection from a key support zone. The 360 level is a major put wall. The video suggests that if the US dollar continues to strengthen, it could put pressure on gold and other metals.

### 29. Net GEX All Expirations for TSLA (timestamp: 2026-06-18 15:59 EST)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** stuck in a range
**Key Levels:** 392.5 spot price, 420 call resistance, 350 put support

Tesla (TSLA) is stuck between 380 and 420, with 380 being a put support and 420 a call resistance. The chart shows a lot of rumors and potential mergers surrounding SpaceX, but the main thing is the price is consolidating within this range.

### 30. DXY (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** double bottom, higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 98.515 support, 101.590 resistance

The DXY daily chart shows a double bottom formation followed by a series of higher highs and higher lows. It reached a resistance level and is now making higher highs. This upward trend in the dollar, if it closes the weekly strong, is significant and could indicate a risk-off environment.

### 31. US02Y (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 4.313% resistance, 4.025% support

The US 2-year Treasury yield is showing a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating continued upward movement. This suggests that short-term yields are on the rise, which aligns with a strengthening dollar and potential Fed hikes.

### 32. US10Y (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** not much movement
**Key Levels:** 4.505% resistance, 4.231% support

The US 10-year Treasury yield is not showing much movement, in contrast to the 2-year yield. The Federal Reserve controls short-term debt, while the market controls long-term debt. The lack of movement in the 10-year suggests the market is not yet 'freaking out' despite short-term yield increases.

### 33. US30Y (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** falling
**Key Levels:** 5.031% resistance, 4.900% support

The US 30-year Treasury yield is falling, indicating potential weakness in the future and a market expectation for rate cuts. This contrasts with the short-term yields and suggests a divergence between Fed policy (short-term) and market sentiment (long-term).

### 34. RSPD/RSPS (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** recovery
**Key Levels:** 1.70 support, 2.00 resistance

The RSPD/RSPS ratio (equal-weighted S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary vs Staples) is showing a recovery from its lows in May. This indicates a return to risk-on sentiment in the equal-weighted market, with people spending more. This could be influenced by deregulation playing out.

### 35. XLI (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward trend
**Key Levels:** 176.31 support, 187.09 resistance

XLI (State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF) is showing a strong upward trend, with industrials moving up. This is another indicator of risk-on sentiment and potentially deregulation driving economic activity.

### 36. XLY (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** hovering
**Key Levels:** 116.34 support, 118.06 resistance

XLY (State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF) is hovering and not falling anymore, indicating some stabilization in consumer spending. This is a positive sign for the broader market, suggesting a potential bottom in this sector.

### 37. RSPD (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher highs
**Key Levels:** 55.25 support, 57.55 resistance

RSPD (Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary ETF) is making a series of higher highs, indicating continued strength in the equal-weighted consumer discretionary sector. This suggests that consumer spending is robust, or at least the market believes it is.

### 38. USO (4-hour)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** continuing down
**Key Levels:** 76.184 support, 84.929 resistance

USO (CFDs on Crude Oil WTI) is continuing down with a series of lower lows and lower highs. If this trend continues, it could put more pressure on energy stocks. The video notes that the price action is still bearish for oil.

### 39. XLE (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** undercutting previous low
**Key Levels:** 53.46 support, 55.46 resistance

XLE (State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF) is undercutting its previous low and moving down about 1.65%. While energy stocks are still relatively high, continued low oil prices will put more pressure on them. The chart shows a clear downward trend.

### 40. COPPER (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** stuck within range
**Key Levels:** 6.1710 support, 6.6676 resistance

Copper is stuck within a range. If copper moves up, it signals further growth in the economy, as copper is often considered 'Doctor Copper' for its predictive power. The current consolidation suggests a wait-and-see approach for economic growth.

### 41. XAUAUD (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** falling
**Key Levels:** 5974.962 support, 6809.444 resistance

Gold against the Australian dollar (XAUAUD) is falling, rejecting the daily 20-moving average. The video notes that it came up to trap itself at supply and is now selling off. This suggests continued weakness in gold, despite some watching for a bounce.

### 42. XAUUSD (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** pulling back
**Key Levels:** 4188.330 support, 4400.000 resistance

Gold against the US dollar (XAUUSD) is pulling back from a demand zone and rejecting the 20-moving average. The video describes this as a 'freight train' of selling. To stop it, market structure is needed, possibly a swipe below before recovery, to wipe out speculative positions.

### 43. XAUUSD (2-hour)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** technical pullback
**Key Levels:** 4188.710 support, 4400.000 resistance

The 2-hour XAUUSD chart shows a technical pullback, with the market returning to supply and then pulling back down. It's currently around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. A bounce here to regain past 4400 would be positive, but a swipe lower before recovery is also possible to clear out weak hands.

### 44. SILVER (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** rejection of daily 20-moving average
**Key Levels:** 61.4576 support, 74.9268 resistance

Silver is showing hidden demand zones on the left, but it's rejecting the daily 20-moving average multiple times. This indicates continued downward pressure. The video suggests that a break through the 20-moving average would signal a change in trend.

### 45. GDX (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downward trend with supply rejection
**Key Levels:** 82.51 support, 96.11 resistance

GDX (VanEck Gold Miners ETF) is in a downward trend, with a drop, reaction to supply, rejection, and further pulling down. There are gap fills around 80. Despite the bearish trend, the video notes some 'good signs' and mentions massive outflows, which could precede a bounce.

### 46. SNDK (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 1814.56 support, 2196.69 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** similar to dot-com boom and 2021

SNDK (Sandisk Corporation) is making higher highs and higher lows, with 'boffins' (analysts) going 'nuts' and upgrading it. This is reminiscent of the dot-com boom and 2021, where similar parabolic moves were seen. The question is whether this time is different, or if it will lead to a pullback.

### 47. TSLA (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** bearish pennant/triangle
**Key Levels:** 380 support, 420 resistance

Tesla (TSLA) is showing a bearish pennant or triangle pattern, with slightly lower highs and stuck between 380 (put) and 420 (call). The video suggests watching the price action, supplies, and data. A rally is hoped for, but a swipe low before recovery is also possible. A rejection on the daily chart is noted.

### 48. IWM (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher highs and higher lows
**Key Levels:** 280 support, 300 resistance

IWM (iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund) is making higher highs and higher lows, indicating a continued bullish trend. It has been outperforming SPY and MAGS, suggesting strength in small-cap and mid-cap stocks.

### 49. IWM/SPY (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** outperforming
**Key Levels:** 0.3800 support, 0.4000 resistance

The IWM/SPY ratio continues to show IWM outperforming the S&P 500, indicating a broader market rally beyond just mega-cap tech stocks.

### 50. IWM/MAGS (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** outperforming
**Key Levels:** 4.30 support, 4.60 resistance

The IWM/MAGS ratio shows IWM outperforming the mega-cap tech stocks, suggesting a rotation into smaller, broader market companies.

### 51. MRNA (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward trend
**Key Levels:** 57.82 support, 63.96 resistance

MRNA (Moderna, Inc.) is showing an upward trend, with biotechnology and some banks in the Russell 2000 also performing well. This indicates an 'abundance' kind of process in the market, with various sectors participating in the rally.

### 52. VTV (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** upward trend
**Key Levels:** 205.34 support, 220.00 resistance

VTV (Vanguard Value ETF) has been doing well for some time, indicating that value stocks are also participating in the market rally. This suggests a broader market strength beyond just growth stocks.

### 53. 000300 (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** higher high in closure
**Key Levels:** 4738.7241 support, 4941.5986 resistance

The CSI 300 Index (China) is showing a very different weekly close, with a higher high in terms of closure and moving in the direction of the trend. This indicates a strong performance in the Chinese market, contrasting with some other indices.

### 54. BTCCUSDT (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** fell off daily 20
**Key Levels:** 60010.99 support, 70028.04 resistance

Bitcoin (BTCCUSDT) fell off the daily 20-moving average and is coming back down. To stop this 'freight train,' market structure is needed, which is currently lacking. The video suggests it will likely need more work before a sustained recovery.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is in a late-cycle phase, characterized by extreme retail investor cash allocation, massive options activity, and Hindenburg Omen triggers. There's a divergence between short-term yields (controlled by the Fed, showing potential hikes) and long-term yields (controlled by the market, showing weakness and potential for cuts). This suggests a fragile market susceptible to a 'June Swoon' sell-off and increased volatility, despite continued bullishness in specific sectors like semiconductors and a rotation into value and small-cap stocks. The unprecedented volume in ETFs and new IPOs like SpaceX adds to the uncertainty, with a potential shift towards risk-off sentiment.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Be cautious of a potential 'June Swoon' sell-off in the latter half of June.
- Pay attention to the massive trade volumes and options expirations, as they can lead to significant market volatility.
- Watch for further Hindenburg Omen triggers as they historically precede market corrections.
- Monitor retail investor cash allocation, as extreme lows often signal market tops.
- Observe the divergence between short-term and long-term bond yields for clues on future market direction and Fed policy.
- Look for market structure (higher highs and higher lows) to confirm bullish trends, especially in gold and Bitcoin.
- Be aware of the risks of quick repricing in markets, especially in concentrated sectors like semiconductors.
- Next week's inflation data, GDP numbers, and Fed policy reports will be crucial for market direction.

## All Instruments Mentioned
DXY, SPX, SPCX, NVDA, GOOGL, AMZN, MSFT, AAPL, BAC, JPM, WFC, GE, CAT, SPY, GLD, Bitcoin, SMH/SPY, NAS100, QQQ, DRAM, US500, TSLA, US02Y, US10Y, US30Y, RSPD/RSPS, XLI, XLY, RSPD, USO, XLE, COPPER, XAUAUD, XAUUSD, SILVER, GDX, SNDK, IWM, IWM/SPY, IWM/MAGS, MRNA, VTV, 000300, BTCCUSDT

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-06-19 20:01:35*