# Market Party Ending? Google Falls, BOJ, Picks & Shovels ETF
**Date:** 2026-06-23  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fQj8ZAPyghs)

## Main Thesis
The video questions if the party for tech stocks is over, highlighting a potential shift in market leadership from the Magnificent 7 to 'picks and shovels' companies, driven by factors like the Bank of Japan's policy and recent stock movements in Google and Nvidia-related ETFs.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. USDJPY (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH (FOR USDJPY)
**Pattern:** breakout to new all-time highs
**Key Levels:** 160.00 resistance, 161.95 new all-time high

The USDJPY chart shows a strong upward trend, breaking past the 160.00 level and reaching new all-time highs around 161.95. Atkinson notes that despite a rate hike last week, the Bank of Japan's actions have done nothing to stem the currency's rise at this important 160 level, indicating continued strength in the carry trade.

### 2. GOOGL (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** sharp decline after reaching highs
**Key Levels:** 380.00 resistance, 349.68 current price

The GOOGL chart shows a significant drop of almost 6% in a single session after reaching highs around 380.00. Atkinson attributes this fall to Google losing a couple of key members, suggesting a potential weakness in the tech giant.

### 3. NVPS (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL TO CAUTIOUSLY BULLISH (ON THE 'PICKS AND SHOVELS' THEME)
**Pattern:** potential bottoming or reversal after a sharp fall
**Key Levels:** 28.25 current price, 22.50 support

The NVPS (PurePlay Nvidia Ecosystem Picks & Shovels Index ETF) chart shows a sharp decline followed by a potential bounce from around the 22.50 level. Atkinson highlights this ETF as representing the 'picks and shovels' companies, suggesting a potential shift in market focus towards these underlying infrastructure providers rather than just the leading tech companies.

### 4. DRAM vs. MAGS (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH (FOR DRAM/PICKS AND SHOVELS), BEARISH (FOR MAGS/MAGNIFICENT 7)
**Pattern:** divergence

This chart overlays the performance of the DRAM ETF (representing memory and hardware, or 'check receivers') against the MAGS ETF (representing the Magnificent 7 stocks, or 'check writers'). It shows a huge divergence, with DRAM (green line) continuing to go very strong, while MAGS (blue line) has been declining. Atkinson suggests that the market leadership is shifting from the Magnificent 7 to the 'picks and shovels' companies.

### 5. GOOG (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** breakdown from a range
**Key Levels:** 75.00 resistance, 62.50 support, 53.42 current price

The GOOG chart shows a clear breakdown from a trading range between approximately 62.50 and 75.00, with the price falling sharply to 53.42. Atkinson discusses big transactions and flows from the options market related to this move, indicating significant bearish sentiment and activity.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
Atkinson discusses a potential shift in market leadership from the 'Magnificent 7' (MAGS) stocks, which have driven markets for a few years, to 'picks and shovels' companies (represented by DRAM and NVPS ETFs). This implies a change in the underlying market regime, moving away from concentrated tech leadership.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Pay attention to the DXY (US Dollar Index) as the world's biggest hedge, as its movement could be a key indicator.
- The Bank of Japan's rate hike has not stemmed the USDJPY currency's rise, indicating continued strength in the carry trade.
- Google's recent 6% fall due to key member departures is a significant event for tech stocks.
- The 'picks and shovels' ETF (NVPS) is showing signs of a potential bottom or reversal, suggesting a shift in market focus.
- There is a huge divergence between the performance of the Magnificent 7 stocks (MAGS) and the DRAM ETF (representing memory/hardware), indicating a potential end to the tech party and a shift towards 'check receivers'.

## All Instruments Mentioned
USDJPY, GOOGL, DXU2026, NVPS, DRAM, MAGS, GOOG, SPX, NDX, Gold, Silver, Oil, 10Y yield, EUR/USD, AVGO, MU, AMZN, TSLA, LLY, AMD, ORCL, JPM, WFC, AXP, BRK-B, STX, HD, MCD, MSFT, AAPL, META, NVDA, GOOG, OPENAI, SPACEX, PLTR

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-06-23 20:00:23*