# Something Strange Is Happening To Markets…
**Date:** 2026-06-26  
**Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=779aqBCGNOg)

## Main Thesis
The market is experiencing unusual volatility and a potential shift in leadership from Magnificent Seven stocks to broader market sectors, driven by rising memory costs, sticky inflation, and increasing debt creation, suggesting a late-cycle market with distribution occurring under the surface.

## Charts & Technical Analysis

### 1. MAGS/IWM (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend
**Key Levels:** 0.24 resistance, 0.20 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The chart shows the ratio of Magnificent Seven stocks (MAGS) to the Russell 2000 (IWM) on a weekly timeframe. Atkinson highlights a significant red candle, indicating MAGS losing steam relative to IWM. He notes that if someone in 2024 predicted MAGS would lose steam to the Russell, RSP (equal-weighted S&P 500), or QQQ, they would be called crazy, but this is exactly what's happening in 2026. This suggests a rotation out of mega-cap tech into small-caps and other market sections, as the 'picks and shovels' (hardware) start to get punished.

### 2. MAGS (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend
**Key Levels:** 69.20 resistance, 61.07 current
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart shows the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) on a weekly timeframe. Atkinson points out a huge movement in these stocks, with a significant sell-off from recent highs around 69.20. This sell-off is happening even into semiconductors, despite a massive Micron earnings report.

### 3. SMH (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend
**Key Levels:** 650 resistance, 600 support, 575 support, 525 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is shown on a daily timeframe. Atkinson notes a sell-off even into semiconductors, despite a massive Micron earnings report. He highlights that SMH has broken below its 20-day moving average (red line), which is a short-term support level. The chart shows a series of lower highs and lower lows, indicating a downtrend. Yellow circles highlight previous support levels that were tested and held, but the current price action is breaking below these levels.

### 4. USO (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend
**Key Levels:** 104.60 support, 109.31 current
**Historical Comparison:** null

The United States Oil Fund (USO) is displayed on a daily timeframe. Atkinson points out a significant drop in oil prices, with USO approaching a key support level around 104.60. He mentions that USO printed its first major institutional-sized trade since the recent pullback, and there have been unusual numbers of block trades across multiple assets over the past two weeks. This suggests that the sell-off in oil might be overdone, or it could continue further. Yellow circles highlight previous price action around the 104.60 level, indicating it has acted as a support zone in the past.

### 5. USO (intraday (2-hour))

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend
**Key Levels:** 113.00 resistance, 106.00 support, 104.00 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

This intraday chart of USO shows the price action around the recent institutional trade. Atkinson highlights that despite the sell-off, there was some market reaction around the 106.00 level. He questions whether the current sell-off is too much or if it will continue, noting that oil is still in its early days of price movement. The chart shows a clear downtrend with price breaking below several support levels.

### 6. MAGS/IWM (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend
**Key Levels:** 0.28 resistance, 0.24 support, 0.20 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The MAGS/IWM ratio chart is shown again, emphasizing the significant drop in MAGS relative to IWM. Atkinson reiterates that this kind of rotation out of mega-cap tech into small-caps would have been unthinkable in 2024, but it is now occurring in 2026. He suggests this is indicative of a late-cycle market and a potential shift in market leadership.

### 7. SOXX (monthly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** seasonal weakness
**Key Levels:** null
**Historical Comparison:** mid-term years (2001-2025)

This chart from PolycarpFX Research shows the seasonality of the SOXX (Semiconductor ETF) during mid-term years (2001-2025). Atkinson notes that traditionally, semiconductors do not perform well around this time of year (June-September), which is considered a 'window of weakness'. This historical pattern suggests that the current sell-off in semiconductors is not entirely unexpected from a seasonal perspective.

### 8. S&P 500 (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** Hindenburg Omen triggers
**Key Levels:** null
**Historical Comparison:** S&P 500 forward performance since 1970

This chart from Bluekurtic Market Insights shows the S&P 500 with overlays of Hindenburg Omen triggers. Atkinson highlights that 7 Hindenburg Omens have been triggered within 30 trading days, which is a rare occurrence. While he states this doesn't necessarily mean the market will crash, it often indicates sideways market action. He advises against FOMO (fear of missing out) or extreme fear, but rather to pay attention and be open to both sides of the market.

### 9. VIX (monthly)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** seasonal volatility
**Key Levels:** 14.31 (July average), 16.44 (August average), 18.29 (September average)
**Historical Comparison:** VIX seasonality (2004-2024)

This chart from Bluekurtic Market Insights shows VIX seasonality. Atkinson notes that June and July tend to be less volatile months, especially during mid-term years, while volatility often picks up in August and September. This aligns with the idea of a potential trading range in the near term before increased volatility later in the year.

### 10. XMAG (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** divergence
**Key Levels:** +6.99% (XMAG), -11.35% (MAGS)
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart compares XMAG (Defiance Large Cap Ex-Mag 7 ETF) with MAGS (Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF). Atkinson highlights a significant divergence, with XMAG up +6.99% while MAGS is down -11.35%. He states that the market is punishing companies paying too much for hardware (picks and shovels), and this is likely to compress margins. He emphasizes that if the market is punishing shares, CEOs will pull back on spending unless they have true FOMO for AI. This indicates a major conundrum for large companies and suggests distribution is happening under the surface.

### 11. SMH/SPY (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** uptrend with recent weakness
**Key Levels:** 0.8673 current, 0.8500 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart shows the ratio of SMH (Semiconductor ETF) to SPY (S&P 500 ETF). Atkinson notes that if the hardware trade continues to hold, it's a good sign, as it's showing a series of higher highs and higher lows, suggesting strength in semiconductors. However, he also points out weakness in comparison to SPY, indicating a mixed signal.

### 12. KOSPI (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend
**Key Levels:** 8,493.37 current, 8,125.91 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The KOSPI (Korea Composite Stock Price Index) is shown on a daily timeframe. Atkinson highlights that KOSPI is coming under pressure, almost dropping below its 20-day moving average (red line). This suggests weakness in the broader Asian markets, which are heavily influenced by semiconductor performance.

### 13. MU (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** uptrend with volatility
**Key Levels:** 1,213.56 current, 1,184.40 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

Micron Technology Inc. (MU) is displayed on a daily timeframe. Atkinson notes that while Micron rallied significantly, it still experienced a lot of volatility. He emphasizes the need to watch all these individual stocks, as their movements can signal broader market trends.

### 14. SNDK (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** uptrend
**Key Levels:** 2,335.00 current
**Historical Comparison:** null

SanDisk Corporation (SNDK) is shown on a daily timeframe. Atkinson identifies SanDisk as a leader in the semiconductor space and highlights its continued upward trend.

### 15. DRAM (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** uptrend with potential reversal
**Key Levels:** 76.89 current, 69.29 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) is shown on a daily timeframe. Atkinson questions whether DRAM will lose its daily 20-day moving average (red line). He suggests that if it does, it could lead to 'waterfall effects,' huge amounts of options offside, and liquidations, particularly from retail traders who have been using excessive leverage. This highlights the risk associated with high memory prices and potential market corrections.

### 16. QQQ (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** head and shoulders (potential)
**Key Levels:** 716.38 current, 699.48 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) is displayed on a daily timeframe. Atkinson points out a potential 'random head and shoulders' pattern with a right shoulder forming. He notes that the market looked bullish in the last 24 hours, but the trends actually held the lower low, and a 'flash sell' occurred. This suggests a market that 'doesn't know what it wants,' with island reversals both up and down, indicating confusion and potential for distribution or accumulation.

### 17. QQQ (intraday (2-hour))

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** flash sell
**Key Levels:** 714.93 current, 699.48 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

This intraday chart of QQQ (2-hour timeframe) shows the 'flash sell' event. Atkinson emphasizes that this is 'not something you want to see,' with many points lost on the QQQ, followed by a rally back to the midpoint. This reinforces the idea of a confused and volatile market.

### 18. QQQ (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** island reversals
**Key Levels:** 716.38 current, 699.48 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The QQQ daily chart is shown again. Atkinson highlights island reversals down and the potential for island reversals up, indicating a market that is seriously confused. He states that the monthly and weekly timeframes are still theoretically bullish, but the daily and smaller timeframes are turning more negative or sideways. This confusion can lead to either distribution or accumulation, but patience to react to market decisions is key.

### 19. US30 (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** uptrend with less selling pressure
**Key Levels:** 52,021.00 current
**Historical Comparison:** null

The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (US30) is shown on a daily timeframe. Atkinson notes that there's not as much selling in the Dow Jones compared to other indices. This suggests relative strength in blue-chip stocks, potentially indicating a rotation into more defensive assets.

### 20. US2000 (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** uptrend with less selling pressure
**Key Levels:** 3,003.90 current
**Historical Comparison:** null

The US 2000 Index (Russell 2000) is displayed on a daily timeframe. Atkinson points out that the Russell is 'really not as weak' as other indices, indicating relative strength in small-cap stocks. This further supports the idea of a rotation out of mega-cap tech into broader market sectors.

### 21. IBB (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** uptrend
**Key Levels:** 183.67 current
**Historical Comparison:** null

The iShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) is shown on a daily timeframe. Atkinson highlights that biotech has continued to move up, indicating strength in this sector. This is another example of rotation into different areas of the market.

### 22. KRE (daily)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** uptrend
**Key Levels:** 74.77 current
**Historical Comparison:** null

The State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) is displayed on a daily timeframe. Atkinson notes that regional banks have continued to move up. He emphasizes that if there were a 'systemic sell,' banks and regional banks would be getting thrashed, but this is not happening. This suggests that the current market pressure is not systemic but rather concentrated in specific sectors like AI.

### 23. SPX (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** uptrend with recent pullback
**Key Levels:** 7,357.48 current, 7,267.50 support, 7,469.78 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

The S&P 500 (SPX) is shown on a daily timeframe. Atkinson highlights that the S&P 500 might have been down on the session, but the advance-decline line continues to go up, indicating underlying breadth. He also notes that it's unlikely the market will top out in June statistically. While there has been a high in June, it's unlikely to be the highest point the market will ever reach. He points out strange rejections in price action, suggesting an unusual market dynamic.

### 24. US500 (intraday (2-hour))

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** volatile trading range
**Key Levels:** 7,337.90 current, 7,274.60 support, 7,437.40 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

This intraday chart of US500 futures (2-hour timeframe) shows significant pressure. Atkinson highlights the options high and low levels for the day, indicating a tight trading range with high volatility. This reinforces the idea of a confused market that is consolidating before a potential larger move.

### 25. SPX (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** strange rejections
**Key Levels:** 7,357.48 current, 7,271.41 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The S&P 500 daily chart is shown again. Atkinson reiterates the 'strange rejections' in price action, which he describes as 'not a cool chart' and 'looks kind of bad.' He mentions that similar patterns were seen on Nvidia and Apple, leading to significant drops. This suggests underlying weakness despite the market's overall upward trend.

### 26. NVDA (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** horrendous weekly candle
**Key Levels:** 195.74 current, 228.91 resistance, 148.88 call wall, 134.27 positive gamma call wall, 116.63 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

Nvidia (NVDA) is shown on a weekly timeframe. Atkinson highlights a 'really horrendous weekly candle' from two weeks ago, indicating a significant sell-off. He also points out the call wall and positive gamma call wall levels, which act as resistance. This suggests that Nvidia, a key Magnificent Seven stock, is experiencing significant bearish pressure.

### 27. AAPL (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** collapse
**Key Levels:** 275.15 current, 316.94 resistance, 221.40 first buy area
**Historical Comparison:** null

Apple Inc. (AAPL) is displayed on a weekly timeframe. Atkinson highlights a 'horrendous' and 'really bad' weekly candle, leading to a 'bit of a collapse' in the stock. He notes that Apple is in correction territory and almost in bear market territory, especially when looking at some of these Magnificent Seven stocks. This reinforces the idea of significant weakness in mega-cap tech.

### 28. SPX (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** gamma exposure
**Key Levels:** 7,300.00 put support, 7,800.00 call resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart shows the Net GEX (Gamma Exposure) for all expirations for SPX. Atkinson highlights that 7300 continues to be a huge strike price for puts, acting as a major put support level. This indicates significant institutional hedging around this level, which could act as a floor for the market in the short term.

### 29. SPX (various)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** gamma exposure
**Key Levels:** 7,300.00 put support
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart shows Net GEX for SPX across various expirations (first, next, highest, and 2nd highest GEX). Atkinson notes that 7300 remains a major put support level across all expirations, indicating strong institutional hedging. This suggests that the market is heavily hedged against a downside move, which could limit volatility in the short term.

### 30. QQQ (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** gamma exposure
**Key Levels:** 700.00 put support, 800.00 call resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart shows Net GEX for all expirations for QQQ. Atkinson notes that QQQ is accelerating more towards the downside, but there's significant put support around 700 and 705. This indicates that while there's bearish momentum, institutional hedging could provide a floor for the price.

### 31. GLD (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend
**Key Levels:** 360.00 support, 369.46 current
**Historical Comparison:** null

The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ETF is shown on a daily timeframe. Atkinson notes that GLD is getting closer to the 360 level and has found a bit of buying pressure around here. However, he also mentions that the world's biggest hedge, the Dollar Index, has been rallying, putting pressure on gold and other precious metals.

### 32. IBIT (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** gamma exposure
**Key Levels:** 34.00 put support, 50.00 call resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart shows Net GEX for all expirations for IBIT (iShares Bitcoin Trust). Atkinson highlights that Bitcoin is coming under significant pressure, still trading underneath its major put support of 34. This indicates strong bearish sentiment and institutional hedging against further downside in Bitcoin.

### 33. DXY (weekly)

**Bias:** BULLISH
**Pattern:** Wyckoff style base, double bottom
**Key Levels:** 101.295 current, 100.280 support, 103.690 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is shown on a weekly timeframe. Atkinson highlights a 'beautiful Wyckoff style base' and 'double bottom bases' in the DXY, with resistance getting hit. The market is making a series of higher highs and higher lows, suggesting a strong upward trend for the dollar. This rally in the dollar is putting pressure on commodities and other assets denominated in USD.

### 34. COPPER (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend
**Key Levels:** 5.9925 current, 5.5000 support, 6.1710 resistance, 6.6676 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

Copper futures are displayed on a daily timeframe. Atkinson notes that copper is coming through and falling, which makes sense given the rising dollar. He points out that copper hasn't quite hit its major support zone yet, suggesting further downside potential.

### 35. GLD (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend
**Key Levels:** 369.46 current, 360.00 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

The GLD ETF is shown again on a daily timeframe. Atkinson notes that GLD is getting closer to the 360 level and has found some buying pressure. However, he reiterates that the rising dollar is pressuring gold, and he's interested to see how it reacts at this key support zone.

### 36. XAUUSD (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend
**Key Levels:** 4,010.67 current, 3,954.55 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAUUSD) is displayed on a daily timeframe. Atkinson highlights this as an important zone, having mentioned it for two weeks. He's interested to see how gold reacts at this level, given the pressure from the rising dollar.

### 37. GDX (daily)

**Bias:** NEUTRAL
**Pattern:** downtrend with support
**Key Levels:** 75.67 current, 73.66 support, 94.37 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is shown on a daily timeframe. Atkinson notes that gold stocks are holding above their lows, suggesting they might be benefiting from cheaper fuel costs. This presents a mixed signal, as gold itself is under pressure, but the miners are showing some resilience.

### 38. SILVER (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend
**Key Levels:** 56.7466 current, 63.2857 support, 68.8684 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

Silver futures are displayed on a daily timeframe. Atkinson notes that silver is 'getting thrashed' because it's a mixture of a usable metal and a precious metal. He compares gold to the S&P 500 and silver to the Nasdaq or Ethereum to Bitcoin, suggesting silver is the more volatile and speculative asset. He uses the theory that if gold finds support, silver will follow, but with more extreme moves.

### 39. XLY/XLP (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** weakening consumer
**Key Levels:** 1.35 resistance, 1.29 support
**Historical Comparison:** null

This chart shows the ratio of XLY (Consumer Discretionary) to XLP (Consumer Staples). Atkinson notes that the American consumer continues to weaken, suggesting a shift from discretionary spending to staples. This indicates a broader economic slowdown or caution among consumers.

### 40. XLY (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** new low
**Key Levels:** 113.35 current, 110.31 support, 113.61 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

The State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) is shown on a daily timeframe. Atkinson highlights that XLY is making a new low, triggering an alert for him. This reinforces the idea of a weakening American consumer and suggests that the 'K-wave phenomenon' (divergence between different segments of the economy) could also be weakening in the background.

### 41. USOIL (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** downtrend
**Key Levels:** 71.239 current, 72.799 resistance, 80.253 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

Crude Oil (USOIL) is displayed on a daily timeframe. Atkinson notes that while there have been a couple of large transactions, oil is still in a downward trend. He highlights a 'weird one' with a 24-hour moving average rejection, lower low, and retesting of that zone. This suggests that while there are signs of life, oil is still under significant bearish pressure.

### 42. STRC (weekly)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** freefall
**Key Levels:** 75.69 current, 100.33 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

Strategy Inc. (STRC) is shown on a weekly timeframe. Atkinson describes the chart as 'pretty scary' and highlights a significant drop in price. He emphasizes that if he saw this in a bond, he'd be very scared, and it requires a deep understanding of the business. This suggests extreme pressure on the company, potentially due to debt creation or other fundamental issues.

### 43. MSTR (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** freefall
**Key Levels:** 85.33 current, 105.09 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR) is displayed on a daily timeframe. Atkinson notes that MSTR is basically in 'freefall' and is dragging Bitcoin with it. He suggests that the extreme pressure on MSTR might be related to efforts to 'shore up the books,' potentially by selling Bitcoin. This highlights the interconnectedness of MSTR and Bitcoin and the potential for MSTR's struggles to impact the crypto market.

### 44. BTCUSDT (daily)

**Bias:** BEARISH
**Pattern:** lower lows and lower highs
**Key Levels:** 59,332.99 support, 58,400.01 current, 66,370.59 resistance
**Historical Comparison:** null

Bitcoin/TetherUS (BTCUSDT) is shown on a daily timeframe. Atkinson notes that Bitcoin is making a series of lower lows and lower highs, indicating a clear downtrend. He mentions a previous 'number one transaction' and Michael Saylor's (MicroStrategy CEO) buying and selling of Bitcoin, but emphasizes that there's now significant pressure on the market. He predicts an 'extreme volatile move' at some point, suggesting a major price swing is imminent.

## Regime / Cycle Analysis
The market is in a late-cycle regime, characterized by a rotation out of mega-cap tech (Magnificent Seven) into broader market sectors like small-caps, biotech, and regional banks. This shift is driven by rising memory costs, sticky inflation (as indicated by Core PCE), and increasing debt creation by companies. Volatility is returning, and there's a disconnect between market sentiment (bullish) and underlying price action (distribution). The rising US dollar is also putting pressure on commodities. The market is currently trapped in a major range for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, with underlying confusion and potential for significant moves.

## Key Calls & Predictions
- Pay attention to the rotation out of Magnificent Seven stocks into small-caps and other sectors.
- Be aware of the increasing costs of memory and hardware, which are impacting company margins.
- Monitor Core PCE for signs of sticky inflation, which could influence Fed policy.
- Watch for further institutional block trades and dark pool activity as indicators of market positioning shifts.
- Practice risk management and maintain a balanced temperament, avoiding FOMO or extreme fear.
- Keep a close eye on the 200-day moving average for semiconductors and hardware as short-term support.
- Be cautious of the potential for a 'bubble pop' in AI-related companies, especially as debt creation increases.
- Watch key support levels for USO (oil) and GLD (gold) as the US dollar strengthens.
- Monitor the daily 20-day moving average for DRAM (memory ETF) for potential 'waterfall effects' and liquidations.
- Be aware of the extreme pressure on MSTR (MicroStrategy) and its potential impact on Bitcoin.
- Expect extreme volatile moves in Bitcoin due to significant pressure and potential liquidations.

## All Instruments Mentioned
MAGS, IWM, SMH, USO, AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, XMAG, SPY, QQQ, KOSPI, MU, SNDK, DRAM, US30, US2000, IBB, KRE, SPX, US500, DXY, COPPER, GLD, XAUUSD, GDX, SILVER, XLY, XLP, USOIL, STRC, MSTR, BTCUSDT

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*Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-06-27 02:01:50*