# Flash Sells On Wall Street Often Mean This… **Date:** 2026-06-28 **Source:** [YouTube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zmAgYLkGICA) ## Main Thesis The market is currently experiencing a rotation out of concentrated tech stocks into other sectors, driven by record margin debt and a potential AI bubble pop. While some see this as a healthy rotation, historical data and Wall Street flows suggest caution, especially with upcoming earnings and the mid-term election year's typical volatility. ## Charts & Technical Analysis ### 1. SPX (S&P 500) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** head and shoulders (potential) **Key Levels:** 7470.76 (gap fill), 7244.18 (support) The chart shows the S&P 500 with a potential head and shoulders pattern forming. A 'Gap Fill' level is marked at 7470.76, and a support level at 7244.18. The current price is 7354.03. Atkinson highlights that 1.4 trillion dollars in margin debt is being used, a new record, which has dramatic implications as everyone piles into a concentrated market. ### 2. MAGS/IWM (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** downtrend **Key Levels:** 0.2671 (resistance), 0.2054 (current price) This chart shows the ratio of the Magnificent Seven (MAGS) to the Russell 2000 (IWM). It has seen a significant drop, indicating a rotation out of the Magnificent Seven. Atkinson suggests this could be a sign of the AI bubble popping or a defensive shift on Wall Street. ### 3. XLV (State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF) (weekly) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** uptrend **Key Levels:** 158.26 (resistance), 151.91 (support), 160.34 (current price) The XLV chart shows an upward trend, with the price currently at 160.34. Atkinson notes that Wall Street is turning defensive and moving into other sectors like healthcare, as indicated by the rising XLV. ### 4. MSTR (MicroStrategy Inc.) (weekly) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** downtrend **Key Levels:** 110.17 (resistance), 82.31 (support) MSTR is shown in a significant downtrend, with a large red candle indicating potential losses. Atkinson mentions that MSTR faces 14 billion dollars in potential unrealized losses. He compares the market behavior to people lining up for a restaurant, assuming it's good because of the crowd, without questioning the underlying value. ### 5. NYSE Margin Debt (FINRA) (monthly) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** accelerating debt **Key Levels:** 1,415.55 billion (latest) **Historical Comparison:** 2000 dot-com bubble, 2007-2008 financial crisis, 2018 trade war, 2021-2022 post-pandemic stimulus rally This chart illustrates the historical trend of NYSE margin debt, showing that each bull run requires more debt than the last. The latest reading is 1.41555 trillion dollars, a new record. Atkinson emphasizes that retail traders are contributing to this problem by piling into concentrated moves, leading to 39% of the S&P 500 being concentrated in tech alone. ### 6. SPCX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** downtrend after initial rally **Key Levels:** 153.23 (current price), 150.11 (big put zone) The SPCX chart shows an initial rally followed by a sharp decline, now trading near a 'Big Put Zone' at 150.11. Atkinson discusses Tom Lee's prediction of a sell-off into the mid-term election year, followed by a huge rally to 8K on the S&P. He also notes that IPOs often rally early and then drop back down, and questions if the 150 level will hold for SPCX. ### 7. The entire US economy (Finviz map) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** sector rotation This heatmap shows the performance of various sectors. Technology, semiconductors, and hardware are largely red (down), while healthcare, biotech, and fintech are green (up). Atkinson highlights that Wall Street is moving into other sectors, suggesting a rotation rather than a systemic failure. He notes that semiconductors and hardware were under pressure, while healthcare and biotech were picking up. ### 8. Sector Performance (Koyfin) (intraday (last 5 days)) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** sector rotation This chart shows the performance of various sectors over the last five days. XLV (healthcare) is up 7.32%, while financials and banking are also continuing to rise. This indicates a rotation of capital into these sectors. Atkinson notes that the advance-decline line is going up on the S&P 500, which is not usually a negative sign. ### 9. Fear & Greed Index (CNN) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** extreme fear **Key Levels:** 25 (extreme fear) The Fear & Greed Index is currently at 25, indicating 'Extreme Fear'. Atkinson notes that this index doesn't always work, but it's interesting to compare with sentiment surveys. ### 10. AAII Sentiment Survey (weekly) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** extreme greed (historical comparison) **Historical Comparison:** May 2020 (pre-sell-off) The AAII Sentiment Survey shows that bullish sentiment is well above historical averages, indicating extreme greed. The last time this level of greed was seen was in May 2020, just before a market peak and subsequent sell-off. Atkinson suggests this could be a contrarian indicator. ### 11. S&P 500: 12-Day Mid-Year Rally (1950-2025) (yearly) **Bias:** BULLISH (HISTORICALLY) **Pattern:** mid-year rally **Historical Comparison:** historical S&P 500 performance during mid-year trading window (last 3 days of June through 9th trading day of July) This chart shows the historical performance of the S&P 500 during the 12-day mid-year trading window (last 3 days of June through 9th trading day of July). Historically, this period tends to be the strongest on record since the 1950s, with a bullish bias. Atkinson notes that this pattern is now widely known, which could impact its effectiveness. ### 12. VIX Seasonal Pattern - Mid Term Years (monthly) **Bias:** BEARISH (VOLATILITY) **Pattern:** Q3 volatility season **Historical Comparison:** 9-year seasonal trend This chart illustrates the VIX seasonal pattern during mid-term election years. It shows that Q3 (July-October) is typically a 'volatility season,' with the VIX tending to rise significantly. Atkinson suggests this aligns with Tom Lee's prediction of a sell-off into the mid-term election year. ### 13. USO (United States Oil Fund, LP) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** downtrend **Key Levels:** 108.00 (support), 107.00 (support), 106.00 (support), 105.00 (support) USO is in a downtrend, with oil prices collapsing. Atkinson notes that despite geopolitical tensions, oil is falling. He highlights a massive transaction on Thursday, the 18th largest on USO, which has stabilized the market around that level. He questions if oil barrels have found support. ### 14. MSFT (Microsoft Corporation) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** downtrend **Key Levels:** 450.00 (resistance), 420.00 (resistance), 372.97 (current price), 350.00 (support) Microsoft is in a downtrend, with a new low and significant activity near those lows. Atkinson notes a massive transaction on Apple and Amazon as well, suggesting an underlying weakness in the Magnificent Seven stocks. He questions if this is the first sign of a 'TFCOT' (The First Crack Of The Old Tree), indicating a major market shift. ### 15. AMZN (Amazon.com, Inc.) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** downtrend **Key Levels:** 270.00 (support), 250.00 (support), 230.00 (support), 222.93 (current price) Amazon is in a downtrend, with a new low and significant activity near those lows. Atkinson notes a massive transaction on Apple and Microsoft as well, suggesting an underlying weakness in the Magnificent Seven stocks. He questions if this is the first sign of a 'TFCOT' (The First Crack Of The Old Tree), indicating a major market shift. ### 16. KARS (KraneShares EV and Future Mobility Index ETF) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** downtrend **Key Levels:** 37.00 (resistance), 35.00 (resistance), 30.50 (current price), 30.00 (support) KARS, an EV ETF, is in a downtrend, showing pressure on EVs. Atkinson notes a couple of large transactions on Tesla as well, suggesting a weakness in the EV sector. He questions if this is the first sign of a 'TFCOT' (The First Crack Of The Old Tree), indicating a major market shift. ### 17. TSLA (Tesla, Inc.) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** downtrend **Key Levels:** 400.00 (resistance), 380.00 (resistance), 377.00 (current price), 300.00 (support) Tesla is in a downtrend, with a couple of large transactions. Atkinson notes that the 380-400 range is where all the puts sit, making it an important level for the stock to hold. He questions if this is the first sign of a 'TFCOT' (The First Crack Of The Old Tree), indicating a major market shift. ### 18. S&P 500 - Yearly EPS Estimates (yearly) **Bias:** BULLISH (ANALYST ESTIMATES) **Pattern:** upward trend in estimates **Key Levels:** 399 (2027 EPS), 370 (2026 EPS), 344 (2025 EPS), 273 (NTM EPS) This chart shows yearly EPS estimates for the S&P 500, with analysts expecting extremely nice results and lots of gains over time. Atkinson questions if these expectations are realistic and if Wall Street will be disappointed if they don't materialize. ### 19. Technology - Forward P/E Ratio (monthly) **Bias:** BEARISH (VALUATION) **Pattern:** declining P/E ratio **Key Levels:** 25.6x (5-year average), 22.9x (10-year average), 21.5x (current) The Technology Forward P/E Ratio is currently at 21.5x, which is below both the 5-year average (25.6x) and the 10-year average (22.9x). Atkinson notes that the Magnificent Seven stocks are trading even lower, almost a standard deviation off their 5-year average. He interprets this as Wall Street considering a significant risk in the AI trade, suggesting they are saying 'you can't spend so much' on these tech stocks. ### 20. AI bubble (Google Trends search term) (past 5 years) **Bias:** BEARISH (SENTIMENT) **Pattern:** declining search interest after peak This Google Trends chart shows search interest for 'AI bubble.' It peaked last year and has since declined. Atkinson notes that when everyone was calling it a bubble last year, it actually fell. Now, people are questioning the real-world application of AI, leading to a mix of bearish and bullish bias, with not enough people in the middle. He emphasizes the importance of being 'indifferent' in markets. ### 21. SOXX Seasonality - Mid Term Years (monthly) **Bias:** BEARISH (SEASONALITY) **Pattern:** weakness in June-September **Historical Comparison:** 9-year seasonal trend This chart shows the seasonal pattern for SOXX (semiconductors) during mid-term election years. It indicates a 'window of weakness' from June to September, with lower lows and lower highs. Atkinson suggests this aligns with the current market conditions and Tom Lee's predictions, but also cautions against relying solely on historical data as markets are getting smarter. ### 22. SPCX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** holding at put wall **Key Levels:** 150.11 (big put zone), 152.77 (current price) SPCX is shown interacting with a 'Big Put Zone' at 150.11. Atkinson highlights how the price is holding at this level like a peg. He warns that if it drops through this level, it could lead to negative gamma and a waterfall sell-off, emphasizing the importance of watching put walls. ### 23. XMAG (Defiance Large Cap ex-Mag 7 ETF) vs MAGS (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** divergence **Key Levels:** +8.20% (XMAG), -8.17% (MAGS) This chart compares the performance of XMAG (ex-Magnificent Seven) and MAGS (Magnificent Seven). XMAG is up significantly, while MAGS is down. Atkinson notes a slight improvement in MAGS on Friday, but the overall trend shows that the rest of the market is doing well while tech is struggling. He interprets this as not a systemic failure, but a rotation of capital. ### 24. SMH/SPY (Semiconductor ETF / S&P 500 ETF) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** series of higher highs and higher lows, but weakening **Key Levels:** 0.8390 (resistance), 0.7861 (support) The SMH/SPY ratio shows a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicating semiconductors have been outperforming the broader market. However, Atkinson notes that it has started to weaken and is back at key levels. He emphasizes that the market hasn't made a lower low yet, so it's not in 'fear of the unknown'. ### 25. KOSPI (Korea Composite Stock Price Index) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** hitting daily 20 moving average **Key Levels:** 8411.22 (current price), 8964.17 (resistance), 8200.00 (support) The KOSPI index is shown hitting its daily 20 moving average. Atkinson notes that this is an important daily level to watch. ### 26. SNDK (SanDisk Corporation) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** uptrend, but not yet at key support **Key Levels:** 2090.71 (current price), 2014.09 (support) SanDisk is in an uptrend, but Atkinson notes it's not quite at its key support level yet. He's looking for leaders in the semiconductor space to hold up. ### 27. MU (Micron Technology Inc.) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** uptrend, but not yet at key support **Key Levels:** 1132.33 (current price), 1020.15 (support) Micron is in an uptrend, but Atkinson notes it's not quite at its key support level yet. He's looking for leaders in the semiconductor space to hold up, and Micron hasn't 'slacked off' yet. ### 28. QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** doji candles, red candles, nearing 700 level **Key Levels:** 706.52 (resistance), 699.48 (support) The QQQ chart shows nasty-looking doji and red candles, getting closer to the 700 level. Atkinson highlights that 705-700 is a very important zone for the options market to hold, as a drop below could open up a flash sell. He also notes that the Nasdaq is up heavily, making it vulnerable to a double top or head and shoulders pattern. ### 29. QQQ (Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1) (weekly) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** uptrend, but potential for flash sell **Key Levels:** 706.52 (resistance), 699.48 (support), 644.49 (weekly 20 moving average) The QQQ weekly chart shows a strong uptrend, but Atkinson warns that if it drops below the 700 level, it could lead to a flash sell. He notes that the Nasdaq is up heavily, and while it hasn't broken below the weekly 20 moving average, it's an important level to watch for mean reversion. ### 30. SPX (S&P 500) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** double top/head and shoulders (potential) **Key Levels:** 7469.78 (resistance), 7354.03 (current price), 7267.50 (support) The S&P 500 daily chart shows a potential double top or head and shoulders pattern. Atkinson highlights the 7200-7250 levels as important to watch this week. He notes that the market is still relatively resilient with more advances than declines, but warns that dropping key levels could lead to real problems. ### 31. KRE (State Street SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF) (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** new highs **Key Levels:** 75.17 (current price), 68.55 (first resistance) KRE, the regional banking ETF, is making new highs. Atkinson notes that financials and banking are continuing to 'putter along,' driven by debt creation and deregulation. He suggests that as long as these factors hold up, they will continue to support a bull market. ### 32. XLF (State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** holding up **Key Levels:** 53.57 (current price), 54.00 (resistance) XLF, the financial sector ETF, is still holding up and not experiencing too many problems. Atkinson notes that it's still holding at this stage, suggesting resilience in the financial sector. ### 33. IWM/SPY (iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund / S&P 500 ETF) (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** flying **Key Levels:** 0.4113 (current price), 0.4018 (resistance) The IWM/SPY ratio shows that small caps are 'flying' at the moment, thanks in part to healthcare and biotech. This indicates a later-cycle rotational market with more advances than declines, suggesting relative resilience. ### 34. SPX (S&P 500) (daily) **Bias:** RESILIENT **Pattern:** more advances than declines **Key Levels:** 7469.78 (resistance), 7354.03 (current price), 7267.50 (support) The S&P 500 daily chart shows more advances than declines, indicating a relatively resilient market. Atkinson notes that as long as key levels like 7200-7250 hold, the market remains stable. ### 35. US500 (S&P 500 Index) (weekly) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** above weekly 20 moving average **Key Levels:** 7414.3 (options high level), 7345.6 (current price), 7263.0 (options low level), 7035.3 (weekly 20 moving average) The US500 weekly chart shows the market is still above the weekly 20 moving average. Atkinson highlights the updated options high and low levels for the week. He reiterates that dropping below 7250 could lead to real problems, but currently, the market is holding up. ### 36. Net GEX All Expirations for SPX (N/A) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** put support at 7300 **Key Levels:** 7300 (put support), 7800 (call resistance) This chart shows the Net GEX (Gamma Exposure) for all SPX expirations. It indicates strong put support at 7300 and call resistance at 7800. Atkinson notes that 7300 is a well-struck level and a key point. ### 37. Net GEX Multi Expirations for SPX (N/A) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** put support at 7300 **Key Levels:** 7300 (put support) This chart shows Net GEX for SPX across multiple expirations. Atkinson highlights 7300 as the most struck put for Monday and Tuesday, indicating a strong level of support as the market approaches the mid-year point. ### 38. Net GEX All Expirations for SPCX (N/A) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** put support at 150 **Key Levels:** 150 (put support), 180 (call resistance) This chart shows Net GEX for SPCX, with a large amount of put support at 150. Atkinson reiterates the importance of this level for SPCX. ### 39. Net GEX All Expirations for GLD (N/A) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** put support at 360 **Key Levels:** 360 (put support), 500 (call resistance) This chart shows Net GEX for GLD (Gold ETF), with put support appearing at 360. Atkinson notes that gold found a bit of a bid through Friday's session, coming into a structure area. ### 40. Net GEX All Expirations for IBIT (N/A) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** put support at 33 **Key Levels:** 33 (put support), 50 (call resistance) This chart shows Net GEX for IBIT (Bitcoin ETF), with put support at 33. Despite negative news for crypto, IBIT found some stabilization around 60,000, suggesting some underlying support. ### 41. DX1! (U.S. Dollar Index Futures) (weekly) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** strong weekly close **Key Levels:** 103.690 (resistance), 101.125 (current price), 100.280 (support) The DX1! chart shows a pretty strong weekly close on the dollar, continuing its upward trend. Atkinson notes that the dollar is one of the biggest hedges in the world, and its strength often indicates periods of uncertainty. He believes the new Fed chair, Wash, will be looking for a higher dollar. ### 42. XLY (State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF) (weekly) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** just held **Key Levels:** 114.37 (current price), 113.61 (support) XLY, the consumer discretionary ETF, just held its support level, indicating the American consumer is holding up. Atkinson notes it didn't fall through too much. ### 43. COPPER (CFDs on Copper) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** recovering slightly **Key Levels:** 6.6676 (resistance), 6.1710 (resistance), 6.1246 (current price), 6.0039 (support) Copper is recovering slightly, with a bounce off demand. Atkinson notes that anything above 6.00 is a good sign, and a close above 6.70 would be a strong number for copper moving forward. ### 44. XAUUSD (Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** found buying pressure after lower low **Key Levels:** 4090.06 (current price), 3989.97 (support) Gold found some buying pressure around an important demand zone after taking a lower low. Atkinson notes that this lower low likely liquidated a bunch of stop losses, and gold stock (GDX) actually held up better. ### 45. GDX (VanEck Gold Miners ETF) (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** holding support **Key Levels:** 94.03 (resistance), 77.00 (current price), 71.68 (support) GDX, the gold miners ETF, is holding support. Atkinson notes that gold stocks held better than gold itself, possibly benefiting from falling oil prices as it's expensive to extract gold. ### 46. SILVER (CFDs on Silver) (daily) **Bias:** NEUTRAL **Pattern:** finding buying pressure **Key Levels:** 68.8684 (resistance), 59.1420 (current price), 56.9895 (support) Silver is finding some buying pressure through its lows, showing early signs of recovery. Atkinson notes that it's very early, but some might call this a double bottom. He highlights that the 4-hour 20 moving average is being slammed into, indicating a key level. ### 47. USOIL (CFDs on Crude Oil (WTI)) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** downward trend **Key Levels:** 80.887 (resistance), 69.834 (current price) Oil is still in a downward trend, consistently hitting moving averages and falling off. Atkinson notes that it's important to watch if it starts to create structure, but currently, it's a 'freight train down' and needs structure to reverse. ### 48. XLE (State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF) (daily) **Bias:** BULLISH **Pattern:** holding support **Key Levels:** 58.63 (resistance), 53.84 (current price), 53.40 (support) XLE, the energy sector ETF, has fared a little better than oil itself, holding its support. Atkinson notes that the stock is holding, while the barrel price is flying all over the place. ### 49. STRC (Strategy Inc - Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** free fall **Key Levels:** 99.47 (resistance), 74.57 (current price) STRC, a MicroStrategy preferred stock, is in 'free fall,' trading at 75 when it should theoretically be at 100. Atkinson calls this 'quite scary' and a significant discount, highlighting the negative sentiment around MicroStrategy and crypto-related funds. ### 50. MSTR (MicroStrategy Inc.) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** free fall **Key Levels:** 105.09 (resistance), 82.31 (current price) MSTR is still in free fall, showing pretty negative stuff coming out for anything to do with crypto funds. Atkinson notes that it's a significant discount from its theoretical value. ### 51. BTCUSDT (Bitcoin / TetherUS) (daily) **Bias:** BEARISH **Pattern:** lower low, freight train down **Key Levels:** 67,672.19 (resistance), 60,220.03 (current price), 59,332.99 (support) Bitcoin has made a lower low, falling below the 59,500 level. Atkinson notes that it's currently a 'freight train down' and needs structure to reverse. He sets an alert for when it gets back above 67,500, but emphasizes that early days show it's still in a downward trend. ## Regime / Cycle Analysis The market is experiencing a rotation of capital, with tech stocks showing weakness and defensive sectors like healthcare and financials gaining. This is occurring amidst record margin debt, suggesting a potential bubble in concentrated tech. Historical patterns for mid-term election years indicate increased volatility in Q3, which aligns with current trends. Wall Street's actions (moving into other sectors, P/E ratios) suggest a recognition of risk in the AI trade, while retail sentiment shows extreme greed, potentially acting as a contrarian indicator. The overall market is resilient due to more advances than declines, but key support levels and the potential for a 'flash sell' remain a concern. ## Key Calls & Predictions - Be careful with margin debt, as it's at record highs and indicates potential vulnerability in concentrated markets. - Watch for a potential AI bubble pop, as tech stocks are showing weakness and capital is rotating into other sectors. - Pay attention to key support levels on the S&P 500 (7200-7250) and Nasdaq (700-705) as a drop could trigger flash sells. - Monitor the Magnificent Seven stocks for structure creation or liquidation, as their performance is crucial for the broader market. - Be aware of the historical tendency for increased volatility in Q3 during mid-term election years. - Focus on price action, data, and flows rather than predictions or news headlines. - Educate yourself and improve your trading skills to navigate volatile market conditions. ## All Instruments Mentioned SPX, MAGS, IWM, XLV, MSTR, NYSE Margin Debt, SPCX, NVDA, AVGO, MU, GOOGL, AMZN, TSLA, MSFT, AAPL, AMD, INTC, ORCL, KLAC, TXN, QCOM, ADI, NFLX, DIS, TEL, VZ, T, HD, LOW, TJX, MCD, SBUX, GE, BA, CAT, RTX, XOM, CVX, JNJ, LLY, PFE, ABBV, GILD, UNH, ISRG, BAC, JPM, AXP, BRK-B, WMT, STX, DX1!, XMAG, SMH, SPY, KOSPI, SNDK, QQQ, KRE, XLF, COPPER, XAUUSD, GDX, SILVER, USOIL, XLE, STRC, BTCUSDT, IBIT, GLD --- *Generated by FX Evolution Monitor on 2026-06-28 02:01:22*